Obviously, a new name or acronym would help.
With Iron Man officially kicking off the summer movie season, and with the semi-interest displayed on box office numbers, I propose a game.
Let’s guess the weekend (Fri-Sun) winners from now until the end of summer. Using whatever release list you’d like (IMDB works well) you can identify the weekend by the Friday date. Sorry to be nationalistic, but I’m proposing US releases & dates only for this one.
Some movies may release on a Thursday or Wednesday, but I think we should keep it to weekend tallies. HONOR SYSTEM: you may edit your entry to add weeks you may miss, but please don’t change your weekend picks less than a few days of before a movie’s release.
Anyone interested?
EDIT: I like GEBOC (Gone Elsewhere Box Office Challenge, I assume. I’m saying gee-bock with either a hard or soft G). This is the GEBOC Summer Edition.
Big winner right here:
May 2 – Iron Man
May 9 – Speed Racer
May 16 – Prince Caspian
May 23 – Indiana Jones
May 30 –
June 6 – Kung Fu Panda
June 13 – The Incredible Hulk
June 20 – Get Smart
June 27 – Wall-E
July 4 – Wall-E
July 11 – Wall-E
July 18 – The Dark Knight
July 25 – The Dark Knight
August 1 – The Mummy
August 8 -
August 15 – Tropic Thunder
August 22 -
August 29 -
Good idea, I’m definitely in.
MAY RELEASES
http://www.comingsoon.net/movies.php?year=2008&month=05
JUNE RELEASES
http://www.comingsoon.net/movies.php?year=2008&month=06
JULY RELEASES
http://www.comingsoon.net/movies.php?year=2008&month=07
AUGUST RELEASES
http://www.comingsoon.net/movies.php?year=2008&month=08
But guessing which film is #1 each weekend is relatively easy. To make things more interesting and more competitive, let’s have a point system and let each guess for the winner of the weekend be accompanied by a guess of how much it will make, i.e. I’m guessing Iron Man will be number 1 with $94 million this weekend. The one who is closest (by number and/or guessing the right film) gets 4 points, second-runner up gets 2 points, rest get nothing. If it’s a tie they get 3 points each.
And when should the deadline for deciding be specifically? I’d suggest Tuesday at 12pm (blog time).
How about calling it the GEBOC?
May 2 – Iron Man
May 9 – Iron Man
May 16 – Prince Caspian
May 22 – Indiana Jones
May 30 – Indiana Jones (edit: gut feeling is that Caspian might retake #1, but I’ll play it safe)
June 6 – You Don’t Mess with the Zohan
June 13 – The Incredible Hulk
June 20 – Get Smart
June 27 – Wall-E
July 4 – Hancock
July 11 – Wall-E
July 18 – The Dark Knight
July 25 – The Dark Knight
August 1 – The Mummy 3
August 8 – The Mummy 3
August 15 – Star Wars: The Clone Wars
August 22 – Tropic Thunder
August 29 – Hamlet 2
Nick, I had thought of something similar, but it’s too complicated/time consuming to manage. If you’d like to keep track of that system, please be my guest!
And I know you think it’s easy, but they’re already talking about Speed Racer not being #1 next weekend…Plus we don’t know if Indiana Jones will keep it’s hold 2 or 3 weekends in a row, or if Hancock will lose steam by the *actual* weekend and let Wall*E take over, etc etc
Plus there’s always the Meat Train dark horse… DRAMA!
EDIT: See James’ picks? You’re going to tell me you’re picking the same thing? Also, I’m confident that everyone will not change their picks at the last minute or well into the weekend. (I’m not keeping track of what’s changed from Tuesday at noon to Friday morning…..) Let the games begin!
Well, I could easily keep track of it, if you guys were willing to participate. I’d just have the scoreboard in your post.
Did I steal someone’s post? I can’t get to that related link. I know the idea is not anything original, but I swear I didn’t get it from somewhere else…
Are there rules on the use of industry information? For example, there may be published and/or unpublished estimates out there. What, if any can be used?
I would pick pretty similar to James’, actually. Not exactly, but close. Guessing number 1’s means that the guessing is pretty similar several weeks in a row (who’s going to bet against Iron Man, Indiana Jones or Prince Caspian?). By guessing the accompanying box-office numbers, the competition is in a tight race with more drama and potentially bigger upsets week by week.
It’s some new thing WordPress is putting there with each new post. Look at Brian’s latest Opening in Chicago post to see some of the weirdest stuff that is “possibly related.”
Yeah, I’m blind without my RS tracking.
I think anything is game.
Frankly, sometimes having too much information (or going along with industry consensus) is the wrong move.
I would need a day or two to come up with my numbers, though.
Are we talking about predicting the exact numbers for the whole summer NOW or before each weekend?
I already differ from James on the 2nd week, so we’ll see. The drama starts early for me!
I know it’s not the ideal setup, but I kept it simple and fun. My game is the Wii to your PS3. ;-)
EDIT: Nick you should start the “Advanced GEBOC” (or GEBOC – Expansion Pack) in a new thread. I agree that would be more thrilling, but I was not willing to manage it. Since you are willing, please do as you like!
I think before each weekend would be fair. This would help with any last minute release date changes that always seem to come up.
But is anyone here not going to bet on Prince Caspian? Or Indiana Jones? Those two weeks will be something of a stalemate, or not much going on. Just adding numbers adds to the suspense (great as it may be), as I see it. A way of getting a winner for each week, instead of per month, say.
That’s the reason I suggested Tuesdays. Before the Wednesday openings (which are always a little unpredictable) and long enough to not see too far in advance the ticket pre-sales.
I’d agree, Jeanine. There’s also the chance that a film could pick up the stench of disaster a week or two before release (I’m looking at you, Hulk).
Okie dokie! Fun! Will start writing out the rules now.
5/2 Iron Man ($75)
5/2 Iron Man – ($82)
Iron Man – $64 million
Ghost Rider made 52 million opening weekend, I’ve got to think this can do at least 15 million more than that. Jeanine’s 75 estimate is probably spot on.
Nick is smoking crack with his 94 million… I can’t wait for Speed Racer estimates next week.
Nick – Well done on the AGEBOC1. I’ll have to think long and hard before posting….
Thanks, Joe! Great idea this. I love it.
Anyway, I don’t think there’s any stress, as it’s only one prediction to be made for tomorrow and three for Thursday.
Anyone have anything to add or find anything unclear?
Well, that does seem a bit much, I admit, but I am leaning for past $85kk. Wait till you see what I think of Tropic Thunder.
I’m revising mine…82 is way too high. I’m locking in at 70…that will be my one and only revision.
Damn, I was going to say 70, but thought I’d give 75 a chance because I thought it might be a bit low.
Nick’s estimate is pretty close to another industry estimate. But the same source (that I read) says that Indiana will also make $95 for opening weekend. I don’t think Iron Man will come close to IJ4.
My thought process: if Iron Man opens above 77 million: it would be in the top 3 non-sequel openings in history. I just can’t see that happening.
Mine was comparing Mission Impossible III (same weekend 2 years ago) and Transformers (last July) as similar films/target audiences.
Plus – who wants to see Robert Downey, Jr as a super-hero? Not me.
I very much want to see Robert Downey as a superhero.
This is going to be like the Price is Right. Right now I’m boxed between James and Jeanine. We can change it until Tuesday at midnight, right? (and what time zone is that–East Coast, Hollywood, or Malmo?)
Me!
We go by East Coast time zone, right? 12 p.m. blog time, anyway (added the last clarification into the rules).
And the other two are I Am Legend and Passion of the Christ. You saw those coming? I think you’re snowed in in the whole GTA scenario. This thing has practically four quadrant appeal. Coupled with great word of mouth, it’s going to be humongous.
Remember guys, you have to post your prediction for the weekend in the AGEBOC 1 thread. Not just here. ADDENDUM: It’s just in order to be able to check up on who made which predictions when.
James, we have a bit of a conundrum with Hamlet 2. The challenge ends on August 31 and the film premieres August 29, should we have a sort of predicted earning for it then, or something similar?
Not just Hamlet 2…many of the August openers are going to continue to earn throughout September and onward.
I guess we could estimate some of the grosses.
Also remember, this thread is still open for participation in GEBOC Lite….You could win this one and lose your shirt in the other! What’s more fun than that?
No, forget it. It was just me discovering the slight anomaly. Unless someone picks another August film as the biggest earner it won’t matter much. And I should have beat you so bad by then that it won’t be a problem :mrgreen:
Also remember, this thread is still open for participation in GEBOC Lite….You could win this one and lose your shirt in the other! What’s more fun than that?
That’s true, actually. You could, potentially, make few points on AGEBOC but get all of them right on regular GEBOC.
What qualifies as a low-budget film? Something Sundance-y? Or does it have to be low-budget only relative to the Batmans and Speed Racers of the season?
I put “below $15 million budget”, where Hamlet 2 is sort of the maximum, but near anything that is getting a limited release qualifies (maybe not Kit Kittredge).
EDIT: Jackrabbit’s pick definitely qualifies.
Jackrabbit, I was thinking the same thing re: Price is Right. I’m waiting until everyone makes their predictions and then I’ll go “77.1 million” … GENIUS!
Question: If someone gets the wrong #1 movie of the weekend, but gets the Box Office correct, are any points awarded?
We’ll need to raise the Professor so he can get in on the action. Although, it’s already Tuesday where he’s at. He’s got the advantage!
But if I see an edit after 12 p.m… Ka-chunk!
Hummm… how about a rule that if someone get’s the box-office of their pick right within half a million, then the player is awarded 2 points?
I’m a little afraid of having too complicated a system, but the above would be all right with me.
Are the points based on the reported weekend estimate, or the final? Sony tends to inflate their numbers a bit and I’ve seen the final numbers off by up to 1 million.
Not to complicate things or anything. ;)
Let’s say it would be final box-office. Just to make it simple. If someone is close to that they can await the pronouncement in eager anticipation.
Alright, read-em-and-weep…after the dust settles, I predict Iron Man will make more than my prediction…I just didn’t want you to think I was too crazy. (If I’m wrong, you can all choose my punishment…(Within reason)…and I’ll post pictures of whatever it is on the site. (Within reason, of course.)
Not this site, I didn’t mean any site, really…i’ll put ‘em on flickr and give the link.
Added the rule about 2 points for correct predictions to the rules.
I’ve changed the timestamps on some of the comments/predictions so the overall predictions are on top.
Hey, guys…sorry…if we want to revise our weekend total…do we just post another comment before the deadline? Is there a way to erase the old one or just edit it? I want to go to 105 million, just not sure how to do that.
You edit your former prediction. But no more edits after 12 p.m. (blog time) today.
So one Brian on each end of the spectrum, Nick on the high-side and everyone else grouped together. Should be interesting…
Ok – question on this Iron man thing: are we counting Thursday grosses?
No. I’m of the opinion that we should limit all guesses to Friday to Sunday in order to keep it as strict as possible. It makes it a little more complicated, but having Wednesday, Thursday and even Mondays for Indiana Jones, just makes it more complicated.
Okay…
1. I don’t mean to be an idiot…but how do you edit your former prediction? I clicked on the number…doesn’t do anything…I know…I’m a moron.
2. I can’t understand the low-balling on this. The fanboys are all gushing…there has been NOTHING else for a few months that anyone’s wanted to see…GTA IV will not have that much effect…I mean…even fanboys can take two hours to watch some Iron fly. This seems like the set-up the first Spider-Man had on its release on May 3rd…poised to fly out of the gate…
Ah, shit, of course. You don’t have a WordPress account, so you can’t edit your posts. Sorry, didn’t think about that.
All right. You can post new predictions as separate comments. Most of us others should be fine by editing.
Try not to change your mind too often :)
Alright, thanks…I’ll hold off…unless, of course…someone comes in with 99.5…then it’s on…and I’ll have to change. I’ll try to get a WordPress account…is that something I can do? Anywho…I’ll wait a bit closer to the deadline…if nothing changes…I’ll leave it alone…I just know it’ll be above that. Thanks, guys.
I should add that this is my biased female perspective. I’d rather see Christian Bale, Toby McGuire, or even George Clooney for that matter (not specifically as Iron Man, but as a superhero).
Anyone’s lady-friend joining them for an Iron Man viewing, or will they be off watching Made of Honor?
Possible explanation, see below
There’s been quite low female interest in this, mostly geeky fanboys, and though they are many, they are possibly not enough to make a record breaking weekend.
My wife loves Robert Downey Jr., but (due to a 6 month old at home) I’m going with a friend. Thankfully, she has zero interest in Made of Honor.
Opening night for the first X-Men was probably 85% male. X2 and X3: near 50-50%. If the Iron Man is solid, the sequels will have broader appeal.
On kind of a side note…do you guys know about HSX.com?
I’ve been playing that for a few years. It’s a lot of fun. It’s like a stock market for opening weekends. You buy movie stocks and they trade based on how people think they might do for the weekend. Every movie uses a formula to base how much it will make after the first weekend. If anyone is involved, what’s your username, I’ll put you on my list.
Yes, I’ve been playing HSX for about nine years. I’m up to 130 million. I’m not real active with it, most of my money is in cash. Nick plays, too, I think.
Why are we adding estimates as an individual post (Rule #8)? Shouldn’t they go into the original post so long as it’s before 12noon Central Time?
I’m also counting everyone’s current lists in the A-GEBOC as entries into GEBOC. Next year they will merge into one. You’ll thank me later.
Sorry, was away.
Eh… well, the thought was originally that this way we would have a definite way of checking up what people predicted at deadline and no people changing their predictions on Thursday or something. But I realize now it has its flaws, since apparently you can’t see the date of the changes in the comments except on the Dashboard and people who don’t have a wordpress account need to make multiple posts, and so on.
Yeah, letting each player make their prediction on their personal scoreboard is a better way to go about it. Instead I’ll just compile the predictions of all players in a separate comment every Tuesday by deadline.
Now I’m going to remove all your bullshit posts in the AGEBOC 1 :D
Ah…he rules with an iron fist. Drunk with power. If Iron Man makes between 87-93mil we’ll never hear the end of it…
Everyone get that? You put your prediction on the long term prediction board (the first post you made in the AGEBOC thread). Then I compile for everybody.
I’ll change the rules a little to reflect this.
This of course presents a dilemma for brianN, as he can’t edit his scoreboard. I’m still not sure how to fix that, but I’m working on some possible solutions. brianN, you should try and get a WordPress account though (don’t know you quite well enough to make you an admin here, pal). I’m sure something can be worked out.
Indeed, because I will then have pwned all your asses.
My fascist tendencies tend to get stronger in the summer.
There are levels of security. He can be made a “contributor…”
That’s true. Let’s try that.
brianN, what’s your email? I’ll mail you later (close to falling asleep now so).
my email is: regimechange@comcast.net
let me know what you need me to do.
thanks
Invite sent.
Yeah, I’ve been playing it again now for half a year now. H$35 mill and counting, yo! Goal is H$100 mill by the end of the year. Used to play a few years ago but got bored once I was over a certain amount (don’t remember how much). League nick is DamnMonkey. Hey, JS, what’s yours?
My handle is Portnoy461
brianN here: My HSX handle is Palapet.
Damn you, Jackrabbit…I’m not #1 anymore.
Just saw the new trailer for Hancock, from Firstshowing.net…that film is going to be HUGE. Must amend my full calendar of releases and totals.
Duh, sorry…it was on Cinematical.
Duh…it was Cinematical.
Hmm, maybe.
I’m still skeptical about the film, Brian. There appear to be severe tonal/script issues that I’m not sure can be fully corrected in post. I fully expect it to open huge, but I’m thinking “one week wonder” as of right now.
Still, I’m looking to be low on my Iron Man estimate…so perhaps I’m not as good at this as I thought!
I’m betting on Hancock making good money on Wednesday and Thursday before WOM tells everyone to go see Wall-E again instead. Keep those fingers crossed!
Entertainment Weekly is forecasting an $84M take this weekend for Iron Man.
Starting to regret retreating from my first instinct (of 82 million).
Looks like they cleared between 4-6 million last night.
Slightly below the 8 million some were projecting, but still a fantastic start.
84 will make me happy :-P
$84 million with or without Thursday’s take? Isn’t quite clear.
Over $5 million is being reported for the Thursday sneak previews.
Did I stutter?
Missed that.
I heard Iron Man may have made five million dollars last night.
James, did you see The Office last night? Did I stutter was a key line…
Oddly, I did not. Need to watch tonight along with LOST (Friday is the new Thursday).
Typically, if they are midnight shows the night before, the gross is reported as Friday.
But since the “sneaks” were Thursday evening before midnight, I’m not quite sure. I have to believe they will also be reported as Friday’s gross since the movie didn’t actually open yesterday.
If someone was wondering how big an impact videogame sales have on the box-office, here’s a pretty good rundown from an analyst regarding GTA 4 (made two weeks ago, for Gamespot).
Stanley was in rare form last night. Usually it’s a silent anger. “DID I STUTTER?!” was quite an outburst from him.
I bow down to Nick and Filmman.
If estimates hold (and even excluding the 5 million from Thursday) Iron Man should be in the mid 90’s for the weekend.
For just the Friday through Sunday, I think Nick might get this one, unless a LOT of people go see Iron Man Sunday…
Nikki Finke reports that Saturday business was higher than Friday’s. 100+ million is likely.
Hey, guys!
Not really being one to gloat…I thought long and hard about sending this comment…but, you know…winners write history…so…let me begin by posting this short blurb from DHD’s Nikki Finke…
“SUNDAY AM: Here are the official blockbuster numbers — Paramount Pictures release of Marvel Studios’ Iron Man, in 4,105 theaters, made an estimated $35,125,000 on Friday 5/2, an estimated $37,500,000 on Saturday 5/3, for an estimated 3-day weekend box office of $100,750,000. Advance screenings in select locations, about 2,500 venues, from 8:00 PM to midnight on Thursday 5/1 contributed an additional $3,500,000. With this addition, the total estimated box office is $104,250,000. The estimated international box office for the weekend is $96,750,000 from 57 territories. The total combined estimated global box office for Marvel Studios’ Iron Man is $201,000,000.”
Does that posting say there is an estimated….100 million for Iron Man for the 3-day weekend? I believe it may say that, yes…ahhhh…I’m done.
This mornings estimates show 98.1 for Fri/Sat/Sun with a cumulative total of 101.6 (including Thursday).
Then that’s four points for BrianN and two points for Nick. On to the next week!
I’m going with Iron Man to win again this week with 45M.
I’m going slightly higher with 50M
All I can say is: poor Speed Racer.
2nd week of Iron Man to devour their grosses and Prince Caspian set to open seven days later.
Hey, guys, is this where we put next weekends predictions?
I’m going with:
filmman: Iron Man: 59 million
Iron Man, 40M
I wonder about the extra scene, though. Will people who missed the extra scene pay to see it again this weekend just for that? Or do the people who care enough already know about it?
I think you can put it here and add it to your orginal comment on the AGEBOC post, as you can see James and I did. I think you can edit your posts now. But I’m sure Nick will see this.
Thanks, Slim…do you mind me calling you that? I still have to figure how to edit comments, but I’ll go to the other post and put it there.
You can call me anything, just don’t call me late for dinner. (rimshot)
Alright, I hope you guys don’t get mad, but I’m just going to re-post my full list and begin with that and figure how to edit comments with that one with the new name on it. So I’ll go over there, put the entire list and we’ll start with that and hopefully you guys can erase the earlier one. Cool?
Final Iron Man number: 102.1
From my source:
I guess I have to agree that Iron Man will repeat this weekend. I’ll say $43 million, too close to both Jeanine’s $40 and Late for Dinner’s $45. But a 50-60% drop has seemingly become standard for a second week blockbuster, so there’s not a lot of margin for guesswork there.
I think the more interesting question is what Speed Racer and/or What Happens in Vegas will do, since no one is picking anything other than Iron Man. So I propose a secondary, non-official contest for that, extending the deadline to noon tomorrow.
I’ll go with $23 million for Speed and $14 million for Vegas.
Wait a minute…Speed Racer is over two hours? Are they insane? How is word of mouth going to fly around to parents whose kids actually want to see this and they’ll say: Skip it…it’s over two hours? That’s just crazy…though I may be wrong…I can’t think of any kids movies over two hours recently…wow…Ratatouille was near two…yes? Maybe kids will go see it…it’s listed as 2:15…some places at 2:09. Ratatouille is listed at 1:51. I don’t know…I think anyone other than die-hard fans are going to be bored silly…this is really interesting to see what happens.
What Happens in Vegas: 23 million
Speed Racer: 17 Million
$33 for Speed Racer, $17 for Vegas
I have no frickin’ idea. Just for laffs, I’ll say Vegas does 21 (get it, Vegas, 21?) and Speed Racer does 25.
Sorry, guys, I’m having a really time-cramming report to do, which I wasn’t aware of until sunday. So I’ll do the AGEBOC summary real quick and maybe be back later tonight. Once again, sorry.
How about we extend the deadline until 6 pm and have people guessing what will be the #2 film of the weekend?
I’m going to go the opposite way of everyone just on the off chance….check the AGEBOC1 for my insane picks.
I like that idea (of guessing #2 and 3). Should we put guesses in here?
I’ve put my two and three choices above, but for clarity:
Iron Man 45M
Speed Racer 25M
Vegas 21M
Here’s mine:
Iron Man – 59 Million
Vegas – 23 Million
Speed Racer – 17 Million
Next week I think we’ll start with a separate thread for the coming weekend predicitions. Boy, what a jumble. :)
As has been declared before, and can now be announced officially, filmman was the winner of last weekend’s AGEBOC with a near-psychic prediction of $99 million. According to the weekend actuals Iron Man earned $98,618,668 Friday through Sunday, meaning filmman earns not only the 4 points for being the closest but 2 extra points for being accurate within half a million. Congrats to filmman, who is now off with a running start on the first summer AGEBOC.
Runner-up was the esteemed yet humble Nick with a prediction of $87 million, which wasn’t very close to the actual take, but close enough to earn 2 points. He blames James for this, as he should have stuck with his gut that had been telling him “+90″ for weeks, but instead listened to the deranged ramblings of someone who actually reads Nikki Finke as something else than comedy.
The leaderboard is now posted. Bring on next weekend, when we will calculate this weekend’s #2 film.
Oh, yeah, and for fairness and simplicity’s sake, it’ll only be getting the #2 film right that earns points. No points for getting #1 or #3 right. Only cred.
So, why are we only doing #2’s this week? How is that fair?
Because doing #1’s this week would be boring, most seem to agree, and doing both #2’s and #3’s will be confusing for sorting out the final score.
Unfair to you, as you predicted so high for Speed Racer, but if were to be the exception this week in order for you to have your #1 prediction, then why not someone next week getting to their special #2, and so on.
On the other hand, you could raise your prediction for Iron Man… with say $9.8 million… just a suggestion.
This thing of avoiding confusion is hard in blog format. Still working in getting rid of the kinks.
I know what you mean, but everyone picked Iron Man last week as well and it didn’t turn out boring. And I don’t see how it can be 100% exciting through the end of August. Some weeks will be slow.
But I also like the idea of picking 2nd this week. These fluid rules (changed on the due date, no less!) could be its undoing. Don’t mess with the AGEBOC! ;-)
Hmmm…so I’m the ONLY one who thinks Vegas will beat Racer? Mark my words, ladies and gentlemen…Vegas will beat Racer…by 5 million…oh, ye of little faith!
Oh, I think it’s possible (and MTC tracking agrees with you) but I suspect Speed will earn 2-3 million more.
However, if word of mouth is as bad as I expect, Vegas could win Saturday/Sunday and take the weekend. They’ll obviously outgross Speed Racer overall.
It’s a work in progress, yo. I think we’ll do the same thing for the last week of May.
I have no problem with fluid rules either as long as there’s consensus.
I have no problem with anything anyone could come up with regarding this contest. I’m not going to win anyway.
I really don’t have any problems. I’m just spicing things up with trumped-up controversies. More hits!!!!
EW’s picks very close to mine.
Alright, here we go…I just shorted Speed Racer on HSX…(rubbing hands together)…lets see what happens…
I propose we use the AGEBOC1 post to update tallies, but a new post should be created every Tuesday for weekly picks (kind of like the weekly Lost discussion).
So, next Tuesday you’d create an AGEBOC May 16-18 post (or whatever you want to call it) and we put our weekly picks in there. It’s up to us to edit our running lists in
THISthe AGEBOC1 post, but that way we don’t have to try and find the original post again week after week to make our picks.Good? Bad? Indifferent?
I like it, because it’s becoming tricky to go back and look for the old threads.
Also, it sucks that Speed Racer is on about 500 less screens (or is it theaters?) than Iron Man. Its only chance is kids begging their parents. Come on kids! Make your parents spend that stimulus package!
Ahhparently…they’re looking at 23 million for Speed Racer and 20 for Vegas…it depends on what happens with the matinees today and tomorrow. So, if it holds, Speed will be #2.
Iron Man is looking to make over 50 million, though.
Just saw this. Yeah, I dig this. Let’s do it that way.
Current estimations put Speed Racer to make between 22-24 million this weekend, so this might turn out to be a win for Brian and JS.
Interestingly enough, the “international” figures we thought might save Speed’s butt might not happen.
In Germany: the film made 25-30k opening day on 600 screens. That would probably shatter the record for lowest-grossing wide release in that market.
Speed Racer opened in 6th place in the UK and 9th place in Germany. Wow.
Hey…it may be a bit early…but over on MCN…? Yeah? They have it:
Vegas (second place) : 20.1 million
Racer (third place) : 20 million
Hilarious. That’s close.
A cliffhanger! If I understand correctly, if Vegas holds on to take second place that’s another win for Filmman. If Speed Racer takes second, Brian gets the win. I think.
Depending on actuals, I was exact on Iron Man.
Actuals from Variety:
“Actual numbers released on Monday showed a gross of $18.6 for “Speed Racer,” while “Vegas” grossed $21.2 million, according to Rentrak.
Winning the weekend crown overall was Paramount holdover “Iron Man,” which grossed $50 million in its second frame for a hefty cume of roughly $177.2 in its first 10 days.”
I hit Vegas’ number on the nose. I’ll defer to Nick, but I think the scoring this week was based on picking the number two film, which means Filmman wins. Since no one else picked Vegas as number two I don’t who if anyone gets the second-place points.
Edited to add: After re-reading the rules, I think you and I are due two bonus points for hitting a total exactly on the head, James.
Yep, I hit Iron Man on the nose but I believe I earn zero points.
Guys…I apologize, really…I was sure Speed would tank…I don’t mean to be winning…I’m sure I’ll lose Prince Caspian…I haven’t been following that. Some places I’ve seen have it opening at 75 mill, but I’m gonna say it’s more like 55…I don’t know…have to figure out how to edit my big post, with all the movies…someone give me a hint where to do that? Sorry. Again, don’t get mad…don’t kick me off or make me dead…
Filmman wins again, and can he please stop being so smug? :)
The question of runner-up is whoever was closest. As mentioned earlier, since no one other than filmman predicted WHIV for #2, then the closest prediction was for Speed Racer and then Brian scores, and is awarded 2 points.
As for correctly predicting the box-office, I’m a little torn about this. On the one hand, correctly predicting is good, but how many predicted earnings for the weekend is one allowed to make? One, two, three, four, five, six, etc.? You see the problem here, right? More and more fishes to shoot in the barrel.
I think there are two ways to go with this either
a) Only one prediction allowed per week
b) Maximum of three allowed (perhaps with a penalty of -1 attached to the extras for any of those predictions falling over/under $10 million of actuals)
I would award both James & Jackrabbit 2 points because the change in what movie to pick was made midweek…almost after the original deadline.
Going forward I would limit it to one prediction, but we’ll need to have more advance notice on what movie we are to pick. (i.e. – first place or second place)
It’s easy to make the rules when I will end up with zero points. I should go with something like $116mil for Caspian.
Yeah, the guidelines weren’t that clear, so that would have been fair. But neither of their predictions were, as far as I can see, within half a million of the actuals, so the point is moot.
Let’s just say players can give their estimates of what the other films will earn, but no extra points from these will be given. Unless a majority feels that they want to have points for predicting the other ones as well.
Writing up the new guidelines and the AGEBOC for May 16-18.
I think we should have to list box office totals converted from USD to Japanese yen. The effective exchange rate at the time of each entry will be used for conversions when determining a winner.
I like this idea because it creates a huge amount of work for Nick.
My brain actually temporarily shut down and lost my eyesight while I was reading that first paragraph. Interesting.
So far, in the GEBOC “Summer Edition” it’s:
James – 2
Filmman -2
Nick – 2
Jackrabbit Slim – 2
Jeanine – 2
Brian – 1 (because your original list still has Speed Racer as the top choice…..zing!)
Joe – 1
Professor Wagstaff – only mentioned here so that I’m not in last place.
I think Nick has a scoring system that would mean filmman has 8 points (4 points for coming closest). Nick?
Filmman has 10 points. Guessing right on Iron Man within half a million gave him 6 points (4 plus 2), and guessing that WHIV would be #2 gave him four more.
Jackrabbit – I’m keeping the original GEBOC score…COMPLETELY separate from (and immediately replaced by)AGEBOC.
Nick is keeping official score for the real game – I’m keeping the score for the boring version.
Just use a system that makes sure I win! :-)
This contest is getting beyond me. I’ll keep making guesses in all 23 threads we have on the subject before sweeping the last month of summer (mark my words: Traveling Pants 2 = August Domination)
I actually think we’re finally set as far as rules are concerned.
I just want Nick to feel the sting of sweat in his eyes from a hard day’s work as BUSTER.. you can’t do that on the balcony buddy?