AGEBOC 09 – June 26-28 « Gone Elsewhere

AGEBOC 09 – June 26-28

June 22, 2009 by Nick

agebocfinalcorrected

Predict the #1 film for the weekend of June 26-28, 2009.

The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points.

Bonus questions:

1) Will the Thursday to Sunday (note: excluding Wednesday, but including Thursday midnights) take of Transformers 2 be more or less than the first weekend of The Dark Knight ($158.4 million)?
2) Will My Sister’s Keeper earn more or less than Year One does this weekend?

Deadline is Tuesday June 23 at 11:59 pm (blog time).

To find out the rules of the game, go to the main thread for AGEBOC 09.

AGEBOC 09 score

James: 18.5

Rob: 16.5
Joe Webb: 13
Nick: 10.5
filmman: 6.5
Brian: 6
Marco Trevisiol: 6
Jeanine: 5
Juan: 5
Jackrabbit Slim: 5
Rhymerguy: 4

Posted in AGEBOC | 36 Comments

36 Responses

on June 22, 2009 at 3:38 am Nick

Four things to note this week, three of them due to Transformers.

Deadline is tomorrow Tuesday evening, not Wednesday as usual.

Remember that your main prediction is for the Friday to Sunday timeframe.

If I didn’t make it clear enough already, for bonus question 1 the timeframe earnings to predict is for Thursday to Sunday, not Wednesday to Sunday or Friday to Sunday.

Your predictions on the bonus questions should be set as More or Less, not Over or Under.
on June 22, 2009 at 6:20 am Jackrabbit Slim

Jackrabbit Slim: Megan Fox and a bunch of robots, 111.111 million

1. Less
2. More
on June 22, 2009 at 6:45 am Marco Trevisiol

Transformers – $145 million

1. More
2. More
on June 22, 2009 at 7:56 am James

I don’t necessarily think Transformers is quite the “lock” people think it is. There’s been a real drought of family-friendly organ harvesting movies in the market, which could clearly benefit My Sister’s Keeper.
on June 22, 2009 at 8:43 am Nick

I don’t necessarily think Transformers is quite the “lock” people think it is. There’s been a real drought of family-friendly organ harvesting movies in the market, which could clearly benefit My Sister’s Keeper.

You will forgive me if experience suggests I would be wise to welcome any advice from you by arming myself and putting my back against a wall.
on June 22, 2009 at 10:37 am Rob

Transformers – $143.341 million
1. Less
2. Less

Question on #1… just to be clear, the total you’re using for The Dark Knight reference is $158.4 million correct?

Question on #2… again, to be clear, you’re inferring that there’s a chance My Sister’s Keeper could earn over $20 million this weekend?
on June 22, 2009 at 10:37 am Jeanine

Transformers – $132.5 M
1. Less
2. More
on June 22, 2009 at 11:09 am Jackrabbit Slim

Further clarification of question 2: Will My Sister’s Keeper earn more or less than Year One’s total for this coming weekend, or it’s opening week total? To put it another way, do you mean that for this weekend will My Sister’s Keeper finish higher than Year One?
on June 22, 2009 at 11:18 am Rob

Damn, that makes more sense Slim… I shouldn’t be commenting so early in the morning.
on June 22, 2009 at 12:53 pm Nick

Question on #1… just to be clear, the total you’re using for The Dark Knight reference is $158.4 million correct?

That is correct.

To put it another way, do you mean that for this weekend will My Sister’s Keeper finish higher than Year One?

That is the correct interpretation. I’ll make it more clear in the post above.
on June 22, 2009 at 3:55 pm filmman

Transformers: 168 million

1. More
2. Less

So, on 1, I guess Transformers will make more than 158 million Thursday through Sunday.
And my guess is that it will make 168 for Friday through Sunday. Okay. Just typing it out to hopefully make it more clear to myself…
on June 22, 2009 at 10:54 pm Brian

Brian: Transformers $125 million

1. Less
2. More
on June 23, 2009 at 7:38 am James

James: Transformers $105 million
1. Less
2. Less
on June 23, 2009 at 10:46 am Rob

CHANGING my Transformers box-office prediction but keeping bonus answers the same:

Transformers – $104.9 million
1. Less
2. Less
on June 23, 2009 at 10:48 am Rob

I also just realized that all of us have missed the June 18th deadline stated in the posting at the top…
on June 23, 2009 at 11:17 am Nick

Suckas! It’s all a trick question! (Changed. Thanks, Rob)

Nick: Transformers – $115 million
1. Less
2. More
on June 23, 2009 at 11:19 am Joe Webb

Even though it’s after the 18th, I’m still going to make a prediction…

Joe Webb – TF2 $127.890m

1. More
2. Less
on June 23, 2009 at 11:17 pm Juan

Transformers – $104.8 million

1. Less
2. Less
on June 24, 2009 at 3:05 am Nick

Behold! A Bell Transformer.

Today brings the advent of the Transformers sequel. I know a lot of people will be seeing it, I quite likely won’t. Bay has said in interviews that he feels victimized by critics, which I half-and-half agree with (Bad Boys and The Rock are great, the rest are quite frankly not), but reviews for this one have been uniformly awful. Even die-hard fans are disappointed. Despite all that, the film will likely have the largest opening of the summer and Bay will likely be standing there once again with a big ‘WTF’ on his face, wondering why critics still don’t love him like audiences obviously do.

The guesses are quite wide for this one, but even the lowest is comparable to last year’s second largest opening (Indiana Jones 4 made $100,137,835). Filmman stands tallest with his 168 million prediction, meaning he thinks it might do over 200 million over five days. Holy Autobots!

Kudos to Juan for making me laugh with a guess.

filmman: Transformers 2 – $168 million
1. More
2. Less

Marco Trevisiol: Transformers 2 – $145 million
1. More
2. More

Jeanine: Transformers 2 – $132.5 M
1. Less
2. More

Joe Webb: Transformers 2 – $127.890m
1. More
2. Less

Brian: Transformers $125 million
1. Less
2. More

Nick: Transformers 2 – $115 million
1. Less
2. More

Jackrabbit Slim: Transformers 2 – $111.111 million
1. Less
2. More

James: Transformers 2 – $105 million
1. Less
2. Less

Rob: Transformers – $104.9 million
1. Less
2. Less

Juan: Transformers – $104.8 million
1. Less
2. Less

Even the positive reviews for it on Rotten Tomatoes are wavering and acknowledge it’s probably the dumbest movie of the summer.
on June 24, 2009 at 10:19 am Nick

Midnights for Transformers were sold out on several locations, some reporting their biggest midnights ever. A few on the hsx boards are estimating 15-16 million for midnight alone, which would indicate over 40 million for this Wednesday.
on June 24, 2009 at 2:00 pm Rob

Damn you Juan.

And well played sir, well played.
on June 26, 2009 at 1:38 pm Joe Webb

The Numbers has Thursday at $28.6m for TF2, so it’s got to make around $130m over the next 3 days for bonus#1 to be “more”
on June 26, 2009 at 4:01 pm Jeanine

Obviously around $130 would be nice for me to be in first or 2nd place anyway. But if it makes less, then at least I get half a point for the bonus question.
on June 28, 2009 at 3:47 pm Nick

Looks like it’s between me and Slim, with ERC reporting 112 million. Considering how close he’s been so many times now, I’m almost rooting for him. Can’t be sure until the actuals are in, of course.
on June 28, 2009 at 4:25 pm filmman

i hate tuesday night openings.

It did make over 200 mil.
on June 28, 2009 at 4:38 pm Rob

Another 1/2 point week for me here… so sad.

And not it’s surprising, but Transformers 2 is ridiculously bad regardless of the box office results. I wrote an FSR piece criticizing it and the supporters who qualify their praise by saying “of course it’s a big stupid movie, what did you expect!”

And then someone made a YouTube video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLWu_IFlV-0) trashing me in response.

I love the internet.
on June 28, 2009 at 5:13 pm Nick

It’s like middle school all over again. “You’re studying?! NERD!”

Love how the defense for the film is based on
a) Calling everyone who thinks it’s moronic a snob
b) When asked why it’s good say that it’s cool/fun/entertaining
c) If asked for a more expansive reason than b) exclaim “It’s got robots and Megan Fox. WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT! Snob.”

I want just a little more, thank you. The fact that the above does not negate it being stupid somehow never crosses their minds.
on June 29, 2009 at 7:26 am filmman

Rob:

A link to your article? I didn’t look real close, but couldn’t find it. Saw the one written by John Cairns. I assume it’s written by a Rob…

Gotta add…don’t appreciate the Ox-Bow Incident like many others do. Thought it was boring and talky.
on June 29, 2009 at 1:34 pm Rob

Here ya go:

http://www.filmschoolrejects.com/opinions/why-transformers-revenge-of-the-fallen-is-the-summers-worst-movie-and-why-mcg-may-deserve-an-apology.php

And yes, someday I’ll start using tinyurl…
on June 29, 2009 at 3:06 pm Jeanine

The actuals I just received are:

108,996,307 (3-day)
200,077,255 (total)
on June 29, 2009 at 3:07 pm Jackrabbit Slim

I think that means I get four points and James 2.
on June 29, 2009 at 3:16 pm James

Down and dirty due to time constraints:

Down to the wire, but JACKRABBIT SLIM IS THE WINNER with four points. Despite Paramount’s overinflated weekend estimates, I end up taking second place with the actuals.

filmman: Transformers 2 – $168 million
1. More
2. Less

Marco Trevisiol: Transformers 2 – $145 million
1. More
2. More +.5

Jeanine: Transformers 2 – $132.5 M
1. Less +.5
2. More + .5

Joe Webb: Transformers 2 – $127.890m
1. More
2. Less

Brian: Transformers $125 million
1. Less +.5
2. More + .5

Nick: Transformers 2 – $115 million
1. Less +.5
2. More + .5

Jackrabbit Slim: Transformers 2 – $111.111 million +4
1. Less +.5
2. More +.5

James: Transformers 2 – $105 million +2
1. Less +.5
2. Less

Rob: Transformers – $104.9 million
1. Less +.5
2. Less

Juan: Transformers – $104.8 million
1. Less +.5
2. Less
on June 29, 2009 at 3:24 pm Jackrabbit Slim

Did Year One move above My Sister’s Keeper in actuals? I thought it beat it in estimates.
on June 29, 2009 at 3:25 pm James

That’s what I get for not paying attention. I thought it was a question of whether My Sister’s Keeper was to out earn the opening weekend of Year One…!!!
on June 29, 2009 at 3:28 pm Jackrabbit Slim

Yeah, that was one interpretation, but Nick clarified.

I can edit the summary if you’re busy.
on June 29, 2009 at 3:30 pm James

All done! Fortunately was pretty simple to change.