AGEBOC 09 – July 3-5 « Gone Elsewhere

AGEBOC 09 – July 3-5

June 29, 2009 by Nick

agebocfinalcorrected

Predict the #1 film for the weekend of July 3-5, 2009.

The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points.

Bonus questions:

1) Will Ice Age 3 have the 3rd largest 3-day Independence Day weekend, counting from Friday July 3 2009? (Superman Returns has held that position for the last three years, with an adjusted opening of $57.58 million)
2) Will the Friday-Sunday take of Public Enemies be the largest Friday-Sunday take of Michael Mann’s career? Yes or no? (His largest until now is Collateral with an adjusted opening of $28.55 million)

Deadline is Tuesday June 30 at 11:59 pm (blog time).

To find out the rules of the game, go to the main thread for AGEBOC 09.

AGEBOC 09 score

James: 21

Rob: 17
Joe Webb: 13
Nick: 11.5
Jackrabbit Slim: 10
Brian: 7
filmman: 6.5
Marco Trevisiol: 6.5
Juan: 5.5
Jeanine: 6
Rhymerguy: 4

Posted in AGEBOC | 30 Comments

30 Responses

on June 29, 2009 at 12:05 am Nick

I’ll be going up on a roadtrip to the more northern parts of Sweden today, to walk around in the woods surrounding my aunt’s cabin, sleep in a tent and, you know, hunt boar with my bare hands. Followed later this week by Nine Inch Nails, The Mars Volta, Depeche Mode, Röyksopp, Robyn, Santigold, lots of Carlsberg and good ol’ classic Swedish homecooking; potatoes, onions and pork. That’ll be the vacation this summer.

I need someone to update the scoreboard this afternoon when the actuals come in and do the summary on Wednesday morning (not Thursday, see deadline) for everyone. I know James and Jackrabbit have taken over before, and I hope either of them would be willing to take over duties until I’m back on Sunday. Have a great week, people.
on June 29, 2009 at 7:03 am Jackrabbit Slim

If James is available, I’ll leave it to him. I’m not sure where you guys get all the numbers.
on June 29, 2009 at 9:56 am Jackrabbit Slim

Jackrabbit Slim: Transformers 2, 65 million

1. No
2. yes
on June 29, 2009 at 1:12 pm Jeanine

Jeanine: Ice Age – 65 M
1. Yes
2. Yes
on June 29, 2009 at 8:57 pm James

Why is the deadline Tuesday at 11:59? Weren’t we doing Wednesday?
on June 29, 2009 at 11:08 pm Brian

Brian: Transformers 2 – $60 million
1. No
2. Yes
on June 30, 2009 at 2:12 am Rob

@ James, I assume the deadline is Tuesday because Ice Age 3 opens on Wednesday.
on June 30, 2009 at 7:48 am James

James: Transformers 2 – 62.5 million
1. No
2. Yes
on June 30, 2009 at 8:53 am filmman

Ice Age 70 million

1.
2. Yes
on June 30, 2009 at 9:12 am Rob

Rob: Ice Age 3 – $62.56 million
1. No
2. No

I’m actually not clear on bonus question #1 because I think War of the Worlds currently ranks third for July 4th weekend box-office with $64.9 million (behind Spiderman 2 and Transformers). And by “adjusted” does Nick mean for inflation? I’m not clear what numbers he’s using which makes my highly scientific predictions difficult, but my answer remains No regardless.
on June 30, 2009 at 9:29 am Marco Trevisiol

Transformers 2, 70 million

1. No
2. No
on June 30, 2009 at 12:40 pm joe webb

I’m on the road and therefore out of the loop. But here’s my guess

Ice Age. $65.656m

1. No
2. Yes
on June 30, 2009 at 2:14 pm Rob

So I realize Nick is enjoying his Nature Trail to Hell but does that mean he won’t be making a guess this week?

Excellent…
on June 30, 2009 at 2:21 pm filmman

My guess is he set his guess to come in at 11:59 tonight. I could be wrong…
on June 30, 2009 at 11:30 pm Rob

I’m lowering my guess by a little.

Rob: Ice Age 3 – $57.75 million
1. No
2. No
on July 1, 2009 at 7:15 am Jackrabbit Slim

Time is up!

We have two camps: the Transformers 2 camp (nice comment by David Denby in the New Yorker–”directed by the stunningly, almost viciously, untalented Michael Bay”) and the Ice Age 3 camp.

Marco: Transformers 2, 70 million

1. No
2. No

Jackrabbit Slim: Transformers 2, 65 Million
1. No
2. Yes

James: Transformers 2 – 62.5 million
1. No
2. Yes

Brian: Transformers 2 – $60 million
1. No
2. Yes

Filmman: Ice Age 70 million

1. (No answer)
2. Yes

Joe: Ice Age. $65.656m

1. No
2. Yes

Jeanine: Ice Age – 65 M
1. Yes
2. Yes

Rob: Ice Age 3 – $57.75 million
1. No
2. No

No guess from Nick, who is no doubt traipsing with reindeer, or Juan.
on July 1, 2009 at 8:48 am Rob

This is why I shouldn’t try to outplay Juan… aimed low in expectation of his wily maneuvering only to have him not play at all.
on July 5, 2009 at 1:13 pm Jackrabbit Slim

This is going to be either Rob or Brian, as according to Yahoo it’s a flat-footed tie between Transformers and Ice Age at 42.5 million. We’ll have to wait for actuals.
on July 6, 2009 at 1:02 pm James

Looks like Transformers will eke out a win. Actuals should be out shortly.
on July 6, 2009 at 1:36 pm Nick

I won’t barge in on JS wrapping this one up, just wanted to say thanks. Good work!

My guess is he set his guess to come in at 11:59 tonight. I could be wrong…

Yes, I did set my guess to come in later, but looks like it failed. Ah well. Think I put it as Ice Age 3 for 42.6 million or so.

And by “adjusted” does Nick mean for inflation? I’m not clear what numbers he’s using which makes my highly scientific predictions difficult, but my answer remains No regardless.

Yes, I meant for inflation, but I checked what you said out on Boxoffice Mojo and I swear that the list of record Independence Day weekends is slightly different than what I saw last week. Sorry for the confusion once again. Superman Returns at FIFTH place is what it should have been (thereby ruining the whole theme of the question, so what the hey). My only excuse was that I was tired and busy packing.
on July 6, 2009 at 2:07 pm Nick

Whoops, wrong thread.
on July 6, 2009 at 3:24 pm Jackrabbit Slim

I hereby leave it to you Nick, to do the scoring for this week.
on July 6, 2009 at 3:26 pm Nick

Ahaha, nooooooooo. Boring ;)
on July 6, 2009 at 3:30 pm Jackrabbit Slim

I can’t possibly decipher who got the bonus questions right.
on July 6, 2009 at 3:32 pm Nick

All right, I’ll do it.

Brian wins! Congratulations! Is this your first time? Do you feel a little tingly? Good for you! Runner-up is James, who continues his AGEBOC domination for another week. Scary stuff this.

Actual result: Transformers 2 – $42,320,877
1. No
2. No

Marco: Transformers 2, 70 million
1. No +0.5
2. No +0.5

Jackrabbit Slim: Transformers 2, 65 Million
1. No +0.5
2. Yes

James: Transformers 2 – 62.5 million +2
1. No +0.5
2. Yes

Brian: Transformers 2 – $60 million +4
1. No +0.5
2. Yes

Filmman: Ice Age 70 million
1. (No answer)
2. Yes

Joe: Ice Age. $65.656m
1. No +0.5
2. Yes

Jeanine: Ice Age – 65 M
1. Yes
2. Yes

Rob: Ice Age 3 – $57.75 million
1. No +0.5
2. No +0.5
on July 6, 2009 at 3:32 pm James

I promise a return to simple bonus questions when FETBOC (well, SETBOC) kicks off HAGEBOC in November.
on July 6, 2009 at 3:34 pm James

YES!!! Buying myself some breathing room finally…
on July 6, 2009 at 3:41 pm Nick

Like I’ve said all along, anyone who can come up with better bonus questions that are not like “does Michael Bay suck?” is welcome to come with them. I just try and keep them topical. I suppose that and my apparently inferior language skills makes them complicated. The next ones will be very simple.
on July 6, 2009 at 3:45 pm James

Full disclosure: I haven’t read a bonus question in weeks. I’ve been choosing answers based on other people’s selections, so the questions haven’t been bothering me.

That said, I’m assuming it’s all the numbers and historical data that is causing confusion.
on July 6, 2009 at 3:47 pm James

And I just realized I gave up part of my strategy willingly.

Please ignore the above folks: I labor over the bonus questions for hours before answering.