2012 Oscar Predictions, Pre-Globes Edition

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Thursday the Golden Globe nominations will be announced, further clarifying a rapidly focusing Oscar picture. Critics awards are coming in almost every day, giving a boost mostly to Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. Also, all films that are on the release calendar have been seen by at least some critics, giving them either negative or positive buzz. Here is breakdown of the likely nominees:

Best Picture

Locks: Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty

Safe Bets: Silver Linings Playbook, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi

In the Mix: Django Unchained, Flight, The Master

Best Director

Locks: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln, Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty, Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Safe Bets: Ben Affleck, Argo, David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

In the Mix: Michael Haneke, Amour, Benn Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Best Actor

Locks: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln, John Hawkes, The Sessions

Safe Bets: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook, Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables, Denzel Washington, Flight

In the Mix: Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained, Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock

Best Actress

Locks: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty, Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Safe Bets: Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone, Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

In the Mix: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour, Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Best Supporting Actor

Locks: Tommie Lee Jones, Lincoln, Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

Safe Bets: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master, Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

In the Mix: Alan Arkin, Argo, Matthew McConnaughey, Magic Mike

Best Supporting Actress

Locks: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables, Sally Field, Lincoln

Safe Bets: Amy Adams, The Master, Helen Hunt, The Sessions

In the Mix: Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook, Kelly Reilly, Flight

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About Jackrabbit Slim

I'm a cubicle slave that still harbors dreams of becoming a full-time writer. I was born and reared in suburban Detroit, Michigain. I was a Theatre Arts major at Stony Brook University, and worked many years as an editor at Penthouse magazine. I now live near Princeton, New Jersey. In my spare time I follow the Detroit Tigers, the Princeton women's ice hockey team, and I review adult films. My blog is at gogorama.blogspot.com

11 responses »

  1. I would not have thought Beasts would be a ‘safe bet’ for best picture. I didn’t see it, but it was my understanding it was somewhat esoteric and maybe I’m just way off-base here, but I didn’t think it was in the running for anything except an independent spirit award for new filmmaker or something. …interesting.

  2. Is Hawkes really a lock for Best Actor? He seems like someone who was considered a lock at the time of the film’s release, but now people maybe don’t care so much about him. Plus the movie was something of a dud at the box office and, take it from me, a lot of the older demographic seemed a little squeamish about the subject matter.

  3. SAG nominations:

    MOTION PICTURE

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables
    Argo
    The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
    Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
    Denzel Washington, Flight
    John Hawkes, The Sessions

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
    Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
    Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
    Naomi Watts, The Impossible

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
    Alan Arkin, Argo
    Javier Bardem, Skyfall
    Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
    Sally Field, Lincoln
    Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
    Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

    Kidman is the real suprise–Bardem is a lesser surprise (at least I’ve heard his name bandied about) Django gets ignored.

  4. Golden Globes:

    Best Motion Picture, Comedy
    The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    Les Miserables
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
    Silver Linings Playbook

    Best Motion Picture, Drama
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Director, Motion Picture
    Ben Affleck, Argo
    Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
    Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

    Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Richard Gere, Arbitrage
    John Hawkes, The Sessions
    Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
    Denzel Washington, Flight

    Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
    Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
    Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
    Naomi Watts, The Impossible
    Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

    Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
    Jack Black, Bernie
    Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
    Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
    Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
    Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

    Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
    Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
    Judy Dench, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    Maggie Smith, Quartet
    Meryl Streep, Hope Springs

    Best Foreign Language Film
    Amour (Austria)
    A Royal Affair (Denmark)
    The Intouchables (France)
    Kon-Tiki (Norway/UK/Demark)
    Rust and Bone (France)

    Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
    Amy Adams, The Master
    Sally Field, Lincoln
    Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Helen Hunt, The Sessions
    Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

    Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
    Alan Arkin, Argo
    Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

    Best Animated Film
    Brave
    Frankenweenie
    Hotel Transylvania
    Rise of the Guardians
    Wreck-it Ralph

    Best Screenplay for a Motion Picture
    Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
    Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
    Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
    Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
    Argo (Chris Terrio)

    Best Score for a Motion Picture
    Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
    Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
    Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
    Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Johnny Klimek, Reinhold Heil)
    Lincoln (John Williams)

    Best Original Song, Motion Picture
    “For You” – Act of Valor
    “Not Running Anymore” – Stand Up Guys
    “Safe & Sound” – The Hunger Games
    “Skyfall” – Skyfall
    “Suddenly” – Les Miserables

    Jeez, more love for Kidman. Maybe they feel sorry for her that she had to pee on somebody. And Salmon Fishing in the Yemen? Seriously?

  5. Wait, wait, wait. They added a song to Les Mis?
    Yeah, no, no need to see people bumping into wide angle lenses or hear more music on top of what is basically an opera.

  6. Yes. It’s a strange phenomenon—film versions of Broadway musicals almost always add new songs, probably just to get an Oscar nomination. It happened with Evita, Dreamgirls, Nine, etc.

  7. Huh. I didn’t realize that.
    I wonder if that happened with Chicago. That was the last musical I saw as a movie, but then, I never saw the musical, so I guess it doesn’t matter.

  8. Can’t understand how The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel keeps popping up in these award nominations. An OK timewaster at best that was very ho-hum and predictable; far too reliant on its excellent cast.

  9. Can’t understand how The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel keeps popping up in these award nominations. An OK timewaster at best that was very ho-hum and predictable; far too reliant on its excellent cast.

    Simple. It appeals to old people. Also, the Golden Globes are foreign (non-American journalists), and movies set in exotic countries tend to do well. (See Salmon Fishing in the Yemen).

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