Oscar 2012: Spreading the Wealth

The 85th Academy Awards turned out to be a fairly equitable evening, as eight out of the nine Best Picture nominees received at least one award (only Beasts of the Southern Wild, in the happy-to-be-there category, was shut out). Argo, the Best Picture winner, only won three Oscars total, the lowest total since The Godfather in 1972. Life of Pi actually won the most, with four.

Therefore it’s difficult to notice any particular themes to the evening. One person, Daniel Day-Lewis, set a record by winning his third Best Actor award, but Robert De Niro, who ended up being a late favorite, did not win his third. Instead Christoph Waltz joins a select group of performers who have gone two-for-two in awards (Sally Field, losing for Lincoln, fell out of that group). Waltz was favored by some in a very difficult category to forecast, and it’s difficult to understand the reasoning–he only won three years ago. Waltz is also only the third person to win at least two Oscars working for the same director. Dianne Wiest has won two for Woody Allen, and Jack Nicholson two for James L. Brooks.

There was a tie, which is rare–there have only been six, mostly in below-the-line categories. The last major category tie was in 1968, when Katharine Hepburn for A Lion in Winter and Barbra Streisand in Funny Girl tied. This time it was in Sound Editing, which was one of the categories won by a man who had long white hair, in either an homage to Gregg Allmann or Lucius Malfoy.

As for the speeches, Daniel Day-Lewis, who seems to be effortlessly eloquent, had the best, quipping that his presenter, Meryl Streep, and he actually swapped the roles of Margaret Thatcher and Abraham Lincoln. I would like to see her as Lincoln, too, Daniel. Jennifer Lawrence had the most perilous winning experience, tripping on her way up the stairs. This only seemed to cement her persona as the goofy chick you’d like to have a beer with–in fact, she admitted to downing a shot before she faced the press backstage.

I didn’t agree with all winners. I certainly think Waltz paled in comparison Tommy Lee Jones, De Niro, and Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Quentin Tarantino winning Best Original Screenplay was a joke. But I was happy with others–I think Day-Lewis, Lawrence, and Anne Hathaway were all deserving, as was Adele for Best Song, the first song from a James Bond film to win the award.

As for the show, well, it certainly has ignited some controversy. I and the crowd I was with thought it was funny. The inclusion of William Shatner in the opening monologue seemed to purposely give the night a casual, who-gives-a-fuck vibe that was refreshing (loved the re-enactment of Flight with sock puppets). I thought Seth McFarlane was comfortable in the role, worked the self-deprecation stuff well, and was edgy without being mean. However, there are those that disagree, finding many of his jokes offensive, or even vile, especially about women. The center of this is the “boobs” number at the beginning, which some have taken to insult women in general, reducing the work of actresses to their flashing of nudity. I didn’t think it was so bad, but not I’m a woman, though the women I watched with didn’t object.

There were some other laughs, such as The Sound of Music gag in introducing Christopher Plummer, and some groaners, such as Paul Rudd and Melissa McCarthy’s banter and Samuel L. Jackson seemingly going off script in the Avengers’ bit. There were also some wow moments, like Shirley Bassey, who I couldn’t have sworn was still alive, belting out “Goldfinger” (the accompany Bond tribute montage was lackluster), and the cast of Les Miserables, every one of them, giving a rousing musical number (less successful was Jennifer Hudson screeching a number from Dreamgirls).

A poignant moment was the usually lachrymose In Memoriam segment, which ended with Barbra Streisand paying tribute to the recently departed Marvin Hamlisch by singing “The Way We Were.” Schmaltzy, maybe, but perfectly appropriate.

So that’s it for the Oscars for several months, which will please many, but it will start kicking up again come fall.

Oscar 2012, Best Director/Picture: Hollywood Saves the Day

Best Director is usually the easiest category to predict in the Oscar race. Even if there’s doubt about Best Picture, just look at what the DGA did–more than nine times out of ten, the DGA winner also wins the Oscar. But what happens when the DGA winner isn’t nominated for an Oscar? Chaos reigns.

It’s happened before–in 1985, Steven Spielberg won the DGA for The Color Purple, but was not Oscar-nominated, the same for Ron Howard in 1995 for Apollo 13. But things went according to plan anyway, as the Best Directors those years, Sydney Pollack and Mel Gibson, matched the Best Picture winner. That’s unlikely this year.

Ben Affleck’s snub by the Director’s Branch of the Academy has turned the Best Director category into a toss-up. I think there’s two possibilities–Spielberg, for Lincoln, and Ang Lee, for Life of Pi.

Spielberg was the early favorite, as Lincoln was seen as the favorite for Best Picture when the nominations were announced on January 10th. But a strange thing has happened–except for Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln has been beaten like a drum during the precursor awards. The explanations for this are mysterious–maybe industry folks find it too didactic–but it did get 12 nominations. Spielberg has won twice before, but I don’t know that his chances tonight are better than fifty-fifty.

Ang Lee is also a former winner, and might win tonight just for the technical problem of making a movie that takes place mostly in a lifeboat with a boy and a tiger as the only characters. Life of Pi quietly picked up 11 nominations, mostly in the technical categories, indicating that the behind the scenes folks admired it. Is that enough to push him forward?

The other three directors figure to be non-winners. David O. Russell, director of Silver Linings Playbook, has a better chance at winning Best Adapted Screenplay, as the film is really more of a writer’s success. The same could be said for Michael Haneke for Amour, who stands a chance in the Original Screenplay category. No director of a foreign language film has ever won a Best Director award.

Finally, Benh Zeitlin, director of Beasts of the Southern Wild, will surely be thrilled to attend.

Will win: Jeez, push come to shove? Ang Lee

Could win: Steven Spielberg

Should win: Steven Spielberg
Should have been nominated: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

In the Best Picture race, die-hard Oscar nerds have come to accept the inevitable: Argo will win Best Picture. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, not because Argo isn’t any good, but because the Oscar stats are against it. Only three films, and only one in the last 80 years, have won Best Picture without the director being nominated. When the nominations were announced, Ben Affleck’s absence in the Best Director category seemed a death knell for Argo. But then it one the Golden Globe. Ah, no big deal. Then the Producer’s Guild. Hmmm. The SAG for Best Ensemble–so did The Birdcage. BAFTA? Hmmm. Then Affleck won the DGA. There is really no case against Argo except for the snub by the Director’s Branch, and they are only six percent of the Academy. Argo will win.

But why? Was it feeling bad for Ben Affleck that did this? Maybe, but I think there’s more to it. Why Argo, a perfectly fine but not particularly revelatory film? It finally hit me–of course the film industry would love this film. It portrays the Hollywood community as heroes, who saved the lives of six hostages. Hollywood is, as one would gather, a narcissistic place, and how better to feel good about yourselves than honor a film that can paint a producer as played by Alan Arkin as a national hero?

That’s my opinion, anyway. The other eight films really have little chance, but if I were to rank them it would be Lincoln as the upset special, given that it has 12 nominations. Again, I’m puzzled as to why it’s been overlooked in precursors. Silver Linings Playbook is probably third, given that it has a lot of support from the acting branch, with Life of Pi fourth, with its support from the below-the-line branches.

Zero Dark Thirty won most of the critics awards, but got left in the dust with precursors, perhaps being punished for its torture scenes, or maybe it’s just one of those films that are loved by critics and not the industry. Amour, while ripe for upset wins in Best Actress or Best Original Screenplay, is a foreign language film, which has never won Best Picture (and this is a depressing film). Les Miserables, while a crowd pleaser in some quarters, is probably a bit too much for Best Picture (and the director was not nominated–oh, wait–that’s meaningless now). Django Unchained’s nomination is baffling, and I can’t imagine how anyone could justify it winning tonight (it has raised the ire of some in the African-American community) and as with Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild even being in this category is a victory.

Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln

Should win: Silver Linings Playbook

Should have been nominated: Moonrise Kingdom

The Fifth Annual Gone Elsewhere Oscar Challenge

Here I go again with another Oscar Challenge. It’s simple–just pick the winner in each of the 24 categories.

I suggest you simply cut and paste the list of categories below in a comment and type your choice of winner next to it. If you change your mind, either edit your comment or post a new one. I will take your last predictions as official.

Best Picture:
Best Director:
Best Actor:
Best Actress:
Best Supporting Actor:
Best Supporting Actress:
Best Original Screenplay:
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Best Foreign Language Film:
Best Animated Film:
Best Cinematography:
Best Editing:
Best Production Design:
Best Costume Design:
Best Song:
Best Musical Score:
Best Documentary Feature:
Best Documentary Short Subject:
Best Makeup and Hairstyles:
Best Animated Short Subject:
Best Live Action Short Subject:
Best Sound Editing:
Best Sound Mixing:
Best Visual Effects:

The nominees can be found all over the web, including here.

Deadline will be six PM blog-time on Sunday the 24th. The Oscar show is that night.

Oscar 2012, Best Actor: With Malice Toward None

The Best Actor race has, for intents and purposes, a mortal lock as winner. Few would disagree that Daniel Day-Lewis, as Abraham Lincoln in Lincoln, has this all sewn up. But still…

No one has won three Best Actor awards. Not Tracy, not Gable, not Olivier, not Bogart, not Nicholson (he has won three, but one was supporting). Will there be any hesitation from voters on checking off Day-Lewis’ name, in that, at 55, he’s not old enough or megastar enough to have made history?

Probably not. He certainly deserves it. Had he only won one Oscar he’d be as much as a slam dunk as he was for There Will Be Blood. But part of me holds out a sliver of possibility that someone could create a gasp-worthy moment that will rock Oscar nerds’ worlds.

Who would it be? I see two possibilities. One is Hugh Jackman as Jean Valjean in Les Miserables. He seems to Mr. Nice Guy, and the role was an arduous one, plus he can sing! If anyone wavers on anointing Day-Lewis as the Best Actoriest actor of all time, they may stray to Jackman.

Or Bradley Cooper, for Silver Linings Playbook. Ten years ago, the best actor category was made up of four men who had won Oscars, and the upset winner was the new guy, Adrien Brody. There might be a movement toward Cooper, who had lots of big moments in the film, and is a star on the rise.

Beyond those three, I don’t see anyone else winning. Joaquin Phoenix has garnered a lot of critical praise for The Master, though I found him nails-on-a-chalkboard annoying. If the award is for most acting, he would get it. Phoenix getting nominated should to rest the theory that talking bad about the Oscars hurts you. He, like Mo’Nique a few years ago, blasted the whole campaigning aspect of it. She won; he won’t.

Last is Denzel Washington, for Flight. I liked his performance very much, but it’s highly doubtful that he would win his third Oscar for this role, in a film that didn’t really take off (pardon the pun). Actors playing drunks win a lot of Oscars, but not this year.

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Could win: Hugh Jackman

Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Should have been nominated: John Hawkes, The Sessions

Oscar 2012, Best Actress: Crazy Like a Fox

The Best Actress race has a clear front-runner, but because of some recent gaffes, there is a possibility of an upset.

The front-runner is clearly Jennifer Lawrence as the disturbed young widow in Silver Linings Playbook. Lawrence, who burst on the scene just over two years ago, is now a major star, having attached herselt to huge franchises in The Hunger Games and the X-Men. She is glamorous, but she is also not attuned to the ways of discretion. When she won the Golden Globe, she said, “Wow, I beat Meryl,” which was a quote from a film but ruffled feathers. Then, on Saturday Night Live, she talked “smack” about her competitors, which was funny but nervy. This award is not usually given to the very young–Lawrence is only a shade older than the youngest winner, Marlee Matlin.

There are two possibilities for upset. Jessica Chastain also won a Golden Globe for the tireless CIA agent in Zero Dark Thirty. She is a rising star, appearing in about ten films in the last two years, but the role just doesn’t seem meaty enough. It would be rare indeed for a woman to win for a role that has no love interest (other than Miss Daisy) and it may be hard for voters to recall a specific scene. Then there’s all that torture stuff, which I’ll discuss further in the Best Picture post.

Emmanuelle Riva won the BAFTA award for Amour, which may make sense for Brits, who are more likely to appreciate a legendary French actress. Riva is best known here for appearing in Alain Resnais’ Hiroshima, Mon Amour, but is far from a household name. However, if voters turn away from Lawrence and Chastain, their votes could go to a role that requires a lot of physicality (she plays a stroke sufferer) and very little glamour. Riva is the oldest nominee in this category’s history, which may get her some votes from the blue-rinse set.

Two that stand no chance are Naomi Watts, as the embattled mother in the Indian Ocean tsunami in The Impossible, and Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild. Watts is one of my favorites, and I feel confident she’ll win an Oscar someday. I’d be tempted to vote for her here just for the hell she must have gone through, being in water most of the time. The film just didn’t catch on, though, and against tough competition she won’t win.

Wallis is the youngest ever nominee in this category, so the nomination is the victory. Part of the reason why it was thought she wouldn’t get nominated–that a performance by a six-year-old is the work of a director, not the performer, may work against her here. She sure dominated that picture, though.

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence
Could win: Jessica Chastain
Should win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should have been nominated: Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

Oscar 2012, Best Supporting Actor: The Winner Takes It All

For the first time in its history, an acting category in the Academy Awards is made up entirely of previous winners. Therefore, somebody is going home with a second (or, in one case, third) Oscar. It’s perhaps the closest race among the four acting categories.

Christoph Waltz, who plays the loquacious bounty hunter King Schultz in Django Unchained. He has won the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards. He won only three years ago for Inglourious Basterds. Some see him as a favorite, given the precursors, and he certainly wouldn’t be a shocking win.

But I’m still thinking that Tommy Lee Jones, as abolitionist Senator Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln will go home with the gold. His win came 19 years ago (for The Fugitive), and he seems like the kind of veteran actor who voters wouldn’t mind giving a second Oscar to. If Lincoln were more of a favorite to win a ton of Oscars, he might be more of a sure thing.

It also wouldn’t be a stretch for Robert De Niro to win a third Oscar. He has won previously in the Best Supporting category (for The Godfather, Part II) and Best Actor (Raging Bull). But he hasn’t been nominated in over 20 years. His career has been notably dominated by comedies and disposable crime thrillers, but in Silver Linings Playbook he plays a different kind of role–closer to his stuff in the Meet the Parents films, but much more complex. He could surprise here.

The longer shots include Alan Arkin, as the producer who helps the CIA agent in Argo, a role that supplies most of the comic relief. Arkin, had he not won a few years ago for Little Miss Sunshine, might be the favorite, given that many producers probably see themselves in the role. But since he has won, I don’t think the part has the juice of the others.

Probably the longest shot in Philip Seymour Hoffman as the cult leader in The Master. It’s great work, but not the kind of thing that would seem to endear itself to voters. The Master was loved by the actor’s branch, the largest division in the Academy, but nowhere else. I can’t see a scenario where he wins.

Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Could win: Christoph Waltz
Should win: Tommy Lee Jones
Should have been nominated: Gary Oldman, The Dark Knight Rises

Oscar 2012, Best Supporting Actress: I Dreamed a Dream

Over the next two and a half weeks I’ll be taking my annual look at the major categories in the Oscar race. I start with the easiest call, Best Supporting Actress.

There seems little doubt that Anne Hathaway, as the doomed Fantine in Les Miserables, will take the top prize. Her one-take, live-recorded version of “I Dreamed a Dream” has wowed just about everybody, and Hathaway, combined with her terrific turn as Catwoman in this year’s The Dark Knight Rises, has had a sensational year and attained top stardom.

The only reason she won’t win might be a perceived notion that she’s just too damn perky. I think this comes mostly from snarky bloggers, who hated her chirpiness at the Golden Globes. But I doubt this will cost her many votes from Academy members.

But if the unthinkable happens, and Hathaway doesn’t win, who will? I think the best chance of the also-rans is Sally Field, as Mary Todd Lincoln in Lincoln. Field, who is one of the few people who is two for two in Oscar races, hasn’t been nominated in 28 years. Some think her “you really like me” speech turned voters off, but I think it’s been more a lack of quality material. She’s regressed back to TV and may be most well known now as a pitch woman for a bone density drug. But though she has won twice before, this is a new generation of voters, and they might feel a soft spot for her if they think it’s too much, too soon for Hathaway.

Amy Adams has received her fourth nomination for her role as the wife of  the cult leader in The Master. Adams is evidently loved by the actor’s branch, but it doesn’t seem likely this will be the role that will earn her the prize. One hopes she doesn’t end up like Thelma Ritter, who was nominated six times in this category but never won.

Helen Hunt also returns after several years, gaining her first nomination in 15 years for the sex surrogate in The Sessions. Hunt, after winning Best Actress for As Good As It Gets, almost vanished from the map, and hasn’t exactly returned to her most visible status of Mad About You days, although she certainly is visible in this film, where she bares all (incidentally, for Hunt fans, check out her younger body in The Water Dance, where she shows just as much). The Sessions didn’t get any other love in the noms, so don’t expect Hunt to make it two for  two.

Finally, Jacki Weaver is nominated for her performance as the enabling wife in Silver Linings Playbook. Some wags thought Weaver got in over Maggie Smith because Weaver campaigns. I don’t know about that, but I didn’t find her performance exceptional–maybe it’s because the other three principles had so much more to do. It’s interesting that Weaver, heretofore unknown in the U.S., capitalized on her nomination two years ago for Animal Kingdom and has turned that into a bankable Hollywood career. She has zero chance at winning, though.

Will win: Anne Hathaway
Could win: Sally Field

Should win: Anne Hathaway

Should have been nominated: Kelly Reilly, Flight

Oscar 2012: Argo Fuck Yourself

“I don’t get no respect, no respect at all.”

After the revelation of the Oscar nominations Thursday morning, in a production that was supposed to highlight the comedic genius of Seth McFarlane (judging by his jokes–one about Hitler?–the Oscar show could be a long one) there was general consensus that most things went according to Hoyle, except for the WTF Best Director category. The director’s branch and the DGA are usually very similar–80 percent in most years. This year it was a shocking 40 percent, with three directors left out in the cold.

So what happened? Ben Affleck of Argo, Kathryn Bigelow of Zero Dark Thirty, and Tom Hooper of Les Miserables got DGA noms but no sniff from Oscar, effectively scuttling their films’ chances at Best Picture (and paving the way for a Lincoln win). In their place were David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook, not a big shock, but also Michael Haneke for Amour and Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild, which registered pretty big on the Oscar seismograph.

The director’s branch, like the writer’s branch, tends to stray into art-house fare, but this was news. Was Bigelow overlooked because of the backlash from liberal groups about the incorrect use of water boarding in the film? If so, it didn’t stop the film from getting a few other big nominations. Was Affleck bounced because he has a less than serious record as an actor (Gigli, anyone?). The branch has never been reluctant to nominate actors (Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson, Tim Robbins), and Argo was a real director’s picture. What gives? I guess Ben shouldn’t feel too bad–Argo‘s Best Picture nomination means he is a nominee, for producing. As for Tom Hooper, it’s clear that though Les Miserables got some major nominations, including Best Picture, it didn’t get nominated for writing or editing, two key categories. Les Mis just wasn’t loved across the board.

The only other big surprise, at least to me, was John Hawkes being left out of Best Actor for this role in The Sessions. An actor playing a man who can only move his head in a well-received, if under-performing film, seems a natural. The film’s lack of impact, or its uncompromising sexuality, didn’t hurt Helen Hunt, who got a Best Supporting Actress nomination while going full monty. I think Joaquin Phoenix of The Master got Hawkes’ nomination, (the actor’s branch seemed to love that film, giving it three nominations, while it gone none elsewhere) coming back from a gaffe where he criticized the process of Oscar campaigning. Phoenix’s performance drove me to distraction–maybe it was a case of getting nominated for the “most” acting, not necessarily the best.

Aside from the above, the nominations were fairly predictable. Lincoln got the most, 12 (although not a Makeup nomination, even though it had much better makeup than Hitchcock, which did get nominated). Life of Pi was next, with 11, and got nominated in almost every category except acting. Silver Linings Playbook was the opposite, the first film since Reds in 1981 to have a nomination in each of the four acting categories. Despite criticism of a social nature, Django Unchained picked up some big nominations, including Best Picture, and Quentin Tarantino was nominated for Best Original Screenplay, even though a high percentage of words in the script are “n*gger.”

It’s also refreshing to see that the Academy doesn’t seem beholden to Mammon, as high-grossing films like The Avengers and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey only got technical nominations (The Hunger Games and The Dark Knight Rises were shut out), while barely-seen art house films Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour got nominated in all major categories. Amour is the first foreign language film to be nominated for Best Picture since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (if you don’t count the American production of Letters from Iwo Jima) and only the ninth such film in Oscar history. And Beast’s Quvenzhane Wallis (I’m learning to spell that without checking) and Amour’s Emmanuelle Riva became the youngest and oldest, respectively, Best Actress nominees.

I haven’t seen all of the Best Picture nominees (still have Amour, Zero Dark Thirty, and Les Miserables to go), but already I think this is the best crop of nominees since the Academy expanded the category. Hollywood may continue to pander to teenagers, and cable TV may now be making the best entertainment available, but there are still some people who are trying to make good films. As Lincoln proved, they can even make money.

Oscar 2012 Nominations, Final Predictions

“Did we get nominated?”

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominations for their 85th annual shindig on Thursday, and since every idiot with a laptop is publishing their predictions, why not me?

Because there is so much prognostication, there seems to be little left to the imagination, but there could be some surprises. Of course, we don’t even know how many nominees for Best Picture will be. I’ll start there.

Best Picture

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

If  the list goes to ten we could see Amour, Django Unchained, or The Master. I think all of these are sure bets except for Moonrise, which is partially a fingers crossed guess.

Best Director

Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

The DGA nominated all of these except Russell, substituting Tom Hooper instead. I think the general malaise about Les Mis may cost Hooper a nod.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel Washington, Flight

I’m pretty confident about this quintet. Joaquin Phoenix has faded. Would be surprised by any other names.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

The big question here is whether Quvenzhane Wallis from Beasts of the Southern Wild will be nominated. Signs currently point to no. In typical Academy category confusion, she may get put into the Supporting category. If she doesn’t get nommed, expect Watts to take her place. The other four seem certain.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Leonard DiCaprio and Christoph Waltz may split the Django vote and allow something interesting to happen, like Bardem being the first performer ever nominated for a James Bond film.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Again, there are four sure bets and one wild card. It could be Jacki Weaver from Silver, and Nicole Kidman has shockingly got nominations from the Globes and SAG for The Paperboy, but I’ll go with old reliable Maggie Smith in a movie old people seemed to love.

I’ll be back on Friday to break it all down and either crow about my correct predictions or eat crow about my wrong ones.

2012 Oscar Predictions, Pre-Globes Edition

Thursday the Golden Globe nominations will be announced, further clarifying a rapidly focusing Oscar picture. Critics awards are coming in almost every day, giving a boost mostly to Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. Also, all films that are on the release calendar have been seen by at least some critics, giving them either negative or positive buzz. Here is breakdown of the likely nominees:

Best Picture

Locks: Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty

Safe Bets: Silver Linings Playbook, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi

In the Mix: Django Unchained, Flight, The Master

Best Director

Locks: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln, Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty, Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Safe Bets: Ben Affleck, Argo, David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

In the Mix: Michael Haneke, Amour, Benn Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Best Actor

Locks: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln, John Hawkes, The Sessions

Safe Bets: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook, Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables, Denzel Washington, Flight

In the Mix: Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained, Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock

Best Actress

Locks: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty, Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Safe Bets: Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone, Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

In the Mix: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour, Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Best Supporting Actor

Locks: Tommie Lee Jones, Lincoln, Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

Safe Bets: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master, Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

In the Mix: Alan Arkin, Argo, Matthew McConnaughey, Magic Mike

Best Supporting Actress

Locks: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables, Sally Field, Lincoln

Safe Bets: Amy Adams, The Master, Helen Hunt, The Sessions

In the Mix: Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook, Kelly Reilly, Flight

Oscar 2012, Best Actress: Young and Old

The record for the youngest person ever nominated for the Best Actress Oscar was Keisha Castle-Hughes, for Whale Rider, who was 13. The oldest nominee was Jessica Tandy, for Driving Miss Daisy at 80. Both of those records could fall this year, as the very young and the very old are prominent in this year’s films.

This is one of the those years where very few of the big Oscar pictures have major leading female roles, so it’s possible for women (or girls) from little-seen or foreign films could make it on the list. This makes the category difficult to handicap, because it’s not known by me which films are aggressively marketing or not.

But here is my early pick for the nominees, in alphabetical order:

Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) This is one foreign language performance that could get traction, as Cotillard plays a trainer of killer whales in a romantic drama. Since Cotillard has already won, she might get more attention than had she not.

Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) Lawrence actually is the second youngest to ever be nominated in this category, at 20 for Winter’s Bone. Now a sagacious 22 and a big star, she is in a big fall release. From the trailer, it looks like a classic “manic pixie dream girl” performance, but she could go into the contest as the favorite to win.

Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) Riva, if nominated, would set the record for oldest nominee, as she is 85. She was a key part of the French New Wave (she was the lead in Hiroshima, Mon Amour, among others), and now could sneak in if Amour is as good as everyone says it is.

Maggie Smith (Quartet) Smith has been nominated six times previously, winning twice, and she’s 77. But she’s kept in the public eye all this time with her work in the Harry Potter films and Downtown Abbey. Quartet is a film about a retirement home for opera singers, directed by Dustin Hoffman, of all people. If the film gets any attention, Smith may be a contender.

Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) I can’t find a birth date online for Miss Wallis, who so dominates this critically acclaimed film. She would certainly break Castle-Hughes’ record, as I believe she is now eight years old. The question would be if she would break the record for lead actor, which is held by Jackie Cooper, who was nine when nominated for Skippy, or acting in any category, which is held by Justin Henry for Kramer vs. Kramer, who was just shy of nine. I think she’s a good bet for a nomination, even though in the past children were often shifted to supporting categories. There’s no way they can do that here.

Also possible:

Viola Davis (Won’t Back Down)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smash)

Oscar 2012, Best Actor: Hail to the Chief

A handful of actors have been nominated for Oscars playing U.S. presidents. Jeff Bridges played a fictional one in The Contender, Alexander Knox was nominate for playing the president in Wilson, and Anthony Hopkins has been nominated twice: as Nixon, and John Quincy Adams in Amistad. Raymond Massey was nominated playing the title role in Abe Lincoln in Illinois. Despite being depicted in several films over the years, no one has ever been nominated for playing Franklin Delano Roosevelt. I’m still waiting patiently for the Chester Alan Arthur Story.

Lincoln and Roosevelt are both the lead characters in two prominent films coming out this winter. It’s entirely possible both actors will be nominated, competing against each other. A Lincoln-Roosevelt debate would be quite something, although I have a feeling they’d agree on most issues.

Here’s my humble hunches on who will be nominated for Best Actor this year. In alphabetical order:

Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook): His star has been rising ever since The Hangover, and this would be a big move from lead in unsophisticated comedies to Oscar bait. It helps that he plays someone crazy. Will be helped if the film continues to gather good press.

Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln): Unless this movie is a complete disaster, it’s hard to come with a scenario where Day-Lewis is not nominated. The trailer mostly has Lincoln looking glum, which is natural, given the circumstances of what happened during his administration, but I hope Spielberg has also included Lincoln’s humor.

John Hawkes (The Sessions): Here’s my pick for the winner. Hawkes, a well-regarded actor who has been nominated once already, plays a man stricken with polio who hires a sex surrogate. If there’s anything more Oscar-y than crazy, it’s physically disabled.

Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock): The move to push up the release of this film shakes up the Oscar race. Academy voters love impersonations, and Hopkins as the Master of Suspense sounds like something they can’t pass up. And who could imagine the same actor could play both Hitchcock and Nixon?

Joaquin Phoenix (The Master): As much as I hated this performance–I think it deserve a Razzie, not an Oscar–if the film gets traction in the Oscar race voters will likely mistake the most acting for the best acting.

Also possible:

Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson) as FDR
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

Oscar 2012: Autumn Leaves

Yes, it’s that time of year once again. The kids are off to school, the leaves will soon change, and football season is starting. It’s also time for the studios to start trotting out their Oscar bait for the awards cycle, and this year there are a number of esteemed directors with new films, and plenty of costume dramas, literary adaptations, and otherwise posh films to dazzle Academy voters. Some of them may even be good.

As with every year I’ve done this, I have no special knowledge except my inner Oscar radar. Some of these releases will sink without a trace. Last year’s winner, The Artist, was not on my list (it was in my “also possible”), so it’s a good chance the eventual winner of the Best Picture Oscar will not appear below. But of these ten films, there’s a good chance that about five will be nominated. Once again this year, there will be five to ten nominees.

Anna Karenina (Joe Wright), November 16: Tolstoy’s classic novel about adultery has been filmed many times without being nominated, so there’s no special reason to think this one will be, other than that is a getting a sumptuous production design and Wright is giving it a stylized treatment–it will be set inside a theater.

Argo (Ben Affleck)October 12: Affleck, after two films, has shown himself to be a capable director. I think The Town just missed getting nominated, and this film, a Wag the Dog-like operation about rescuing Iranian hostages, seems like it could be a winner.

Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin) July 1: Given the expanded nomination list, this figures to be the “art film” choice, as it has received almost unanimous praise.

The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan) July 20: I don’t know about this one. Surely the reason the Academy expanded the field in the first place can be traced to the snubbing of The Dark Knight, but this film has not received as high as acclaim as that one did (though it’s a better movie). But the Academy might be ready to nominate a comic-book superhero movie, and instead of going with the box office mega-smash The Avengers, it can go with those more critic-friendly one.

Les Miserables (Tom Hooper) December 14: The Oscar blogs have anointed this as the front-runner, which goes against Oscar precedent. I do not believe any director has won Best Picture for two consecutive films, and Tom Hooper seems unlikely to pull that off. The familiarity of the material and big stars have drawn focus. It may well be nominated, but I’ll say right here that it won’t win.

Life of Pi (Ang Lee) November 21: Lee’s adaptation of a popular book about a boy and a tiger in a boat drew raves at Cannes, and I’m interested to see how it could be made into a movie–will the Tiger be real, or a puppet?

Lincoln (Steven Spielberg) November 9: Long gestating, this adaptation of Doris Kearns Goodwin’s Team of Rivals finally hits the big screen. Daniel-Day Lewis looks great as Abe, and I’m intrigued, but expect Spielberg to overdo the schmaltz. Still, seems like a sure thing for a nomination.

The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson) September 14: We’ll find out very soon if this film is Oscar-worthy, and if it’s really about L. Ron Hubbard. I’ll be there, of course, will the Academy? I think if they were able to honor the difficult There Will Be Blood, they will honor this one.

Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson) May 27: The Academy hasn’t been overwhelmed by Anderson’s work–he’s gotten one nomination, for writing The Royal Tenenbaums. But this film has garnered the best reviews of his career, and for my money it’s the best movie of the year so far. Put it in the book.

Zero Dark Thirty (Kathryn Bigelow) December 19: A film about the killing of Osama bin Laden, this film figures to be a pretty good action/thriller, and has also raised some controversy by being accused by a Republican congressman that Bigelow and screenwriter Mark Boal got classified information. That kind of controversy can’t hurt.

Also in the mix: Amour (Michael Haneke) Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino), The Hobbit: Unexpected Journey (Peter Jackson), Hyde Park on Hudson (Roger Michel), The Paperboy (Lee Daniels), The Sessions (Ben Lewin), Silver Lining’s Playbook (David O. Russell)

Two Lists From Film Comment

Picked up the new issue of Film Comment yesterday, and they have two lists I thought might spur discussion. First is the Readers’ Poll of Best Films of 2011. I’ve starred those films that did not appear on the critics’ list. Understandably, the readers were more welcoming of mainstream fare:

1. The Tree of Life
2. Melancholia
3. Drive*
4. Hugo
5. Midnight in Paris
6. The Artist*
7. Certified Copy
8. The Descendants
9. Meek’s Cutoff
10. A Separation
11. A Dangerous Method
12. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
13. Shame
14. Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives
15. Take Shelter
16. Moneyball*
17. Le Havre
18. Martha Marcy May Marlene*
19. The Skin I Live In
20. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo*

I’ve seen 15 of these (not seen: Certified Copy, Uncle Boonmee, Shame, Le Havre, The Skin I Live In).

Secondly, and more controversially, is their list of the “Worst Winners of Best Picture Oscars”

1. Crash
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Chicago
4. Forrest Gump
5. A Beautiful Mind
6. Gladiator
7. American Beauty
8. Shakespeare in Love
9. Braveheart
10. Titanic
11. Driving Miss Daisy
12. Dances With Wolves
13. The Greatest Show on Earth
14. The King’s Speech
15. The English Patient
16. Amadeus
17. Around the World in 80 Days
18. Chariots of Fire
19. Gandhi
20. Mrs. Miniver

I have seen all but one of the Best Picture Oscar winners (except for Tom Jones). I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that the compiler(s) of this list have not. The top 12 are all post-1990, and 17(!) of the 20 are post-1980, which means of the past 31 winners, more than half are on the top of the suckitude scale.

The section this list appears in is “Film Comment’s Trivial Top 20,” so I suspect there’s some kind of joke going on here (as with them leaving off Schindler’s List from the 20 Best Black and White films since 1970). That, plus snobbishness, as these are films that beat out the precious films that they thought deserved to win. To anyone who has seen all of the films, to suggest that Cimarron, Cavalcade, Broadway Melody, and The Great Ziegfeld are better than any of the 20 films above (except for The Greatest Show on Earth, which is indeed the worst) is ludicrous.

This is a case where the most recent has shoved out the old. It happens all the time in lists of great sporting events where the recent take precedence over the old, if only because those voting weren’t alive to witness the old ones. (Gabby Hartnett’s 1938  “Homer in the Gloamin’” never gets the respect it deserves).

When I finally catch up with Tom Jones, I’ll compile my own list of Best Picture winners.

Oscar 2011: Best Director, Best Picture

After the lead acting awards have been given, the suspense will be over tonight. The Best Picture and Best Director awards are dead solid locks.

The favorite for Best Director is Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist, a film that has steadily built momentum since it premiered at Cannes in May. This marks the second year in a row that a comparative unknown will win this award. Why am I so sure? Hazanavicius won the DGA award, which is one of the most certain indicators of an Oscar.

The rest of the nominees, an august group, don’t stand a chance. If, for some reason, I’m wrong, I’d be at a loss to name the winner. Perhaps Martin Scorsese for Hugo, but that he finally got the nonwinner monkey off his back five years ago there isn’t a swell of sentiment behind him. When the awards talk started, I thought that Alexander Payne might have been the winner for The Descendants, but that film has lost whatever steam it might have had.

The other two nominees won’t sweat losing, as they won’t even be there. Woody Allen, director of Midnight in Paris, and Terrence Malick, for The Tree of Life, are consistent no-shows at award shows. Allen will win for Best Original Screenplay (the first to win that award three times), while Malick is so camera-shy that there appears to be only one photo of him, used over and over again in magazines.

Will win: Michel Hazanavicius

Could win: No one else

Should win: Terrence Malick

Should have been nominated: Bennett Miller, Moneyball

To handicap the Best Picture race, one should eliminate any film that does not have a director nomination, which takes out Moneyball, The Help, War Horse, and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. Since 1932, only one film, Driving Miss Daisy, has won a Best Picture Oscar without getting a Best Director nomination. Then, you can eliminate the films that don’t have a Screenplay nomination, which knocks out The Tree of Life. The last film to win an Oscar for Best Picture without a screenplay nomination was Titanic. Finally, you can knock out films that don’t have a Best Editing nomination, which knocks out Midnight in Paris. The last film to win in that instance was Ordinary People.

The films that are left are The Artist, Hugo, and The Descendants. Here, look to one of the more reliable matchups in Oscar history: whomever wins
Best Director, that film wins Best Picture, and I see no reason to see a
split this year. I will admit I’m puzzled by the enthusiasm for The Artist, which
is an amusing trifle, but apparently the audacity of making a black and white
silent film in this day and age has impressed a number of people. It was
a pleasant enough experience, but as the years go by it will be one of
those Best Pictures that people look back and say, “WTF?”

Hugo, despite a win for Scorsese at the Golden Globes, has never gained traction during awards season, and, as mentioned, The Descendants was set up to be the favorite, but didn’t catch on. If you came from the future and told me that The Artist didn’t win, I think the winner might be The Help, due to it being a favorite among actors (it won the SAG award for Best Ensemble). It would set Oscar ninnies back on their heels, though, since it would be the first Best Picture without a Director, Screenplay, or Editing nomination since Grand Hotel.

Will win: The Artist

Could win: The Help

Should win: Midnight in Paris

Should have been nominated: Take Shelter

Here is my complete slate of predictions:

Best Picture: The Artist

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius

Best Actor: Jean Dujardin

Best Actress: Viola Davis

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer

Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants

Best Foreign Language Film: In Darkness

Best Animated Film: Rango

Best Cinematography: The Artist

Best Editing: The Artist

Best Art Direction: Hugo

Best Costume Design: The Artist

Best Song: Real in Rio

Best Musical Score: The Artist

Best Documentary Feature: Paradise Lost 3

Best Documentary Short Subject: God is the Bigger Elvis

Best Makeup: The Iron Lady

Best Animated Short Subject: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Best Live Action Short Subject: The Shore

Best Sound Editing: Hugo

Best Sound Mixing: Hugo

Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes