AGEBOC ’11 – June 3-5

Standard

Predict the #1 film for the weekend of June 3-5 2011.

The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points.

Bonus questions:

1. Will X-Men First Class earn more or less on Saturday than it did on Friday?

2. Will Hangover 2 earn more or less than 50% of what it did the previous weekend?

Deadline is Thursday, June 2 11:59 pm (blog time).

To find out the rules of the game, go to the main thread for AGEBOC 09.

Current rankings:

Jackrabbit Slim 10.5
Jeanine 8.5
Juan 8
Joe Webb 5.5
Brian 5.5
Filmman 5
Marco Trevisiol 4.5
Rob Hunter 2
James 2
Nick 1.5

38 responses »

  1. I’m just trying to decide if all the big summer movies will cancel themselves out enough for Love Wedding Marriage to sneak into the top spot.

  2. This is freaking tough. I’ve calculated 5 different possible grosses using 4 sensible formulas and 1 that doesn’t make any sense, and I’m not completely happy with any of them.

  3. I just posted and already don’t like it. I think Jeanine’s is more where this gross will lie…

  4. For anyone interested – I went with the non-sensical number – combining results from two other equations and dividing them by two.

  5. I’m starting to think *I’m* going to be over…which can’t be a good sign.

  6. I don’t recall if we can change guesses as long as it’s before the deadline. If so – I’m going with

    X-Men: First Class – $71 million

    Same guesses for the bonus questions

    1. Less
    2. Less

  7. I don’t recall if we can change guesses as long as it’s before the deadline.

    That’s fine.

    Kudos on first bonus question…good one, that-

    Hard coming up with good bonus questions when there’s only one big film released.

    X-Men: Economy Class – 65 million
    1. Less
    2. Less

  8. And the franchise is far from dead. If word of mouth is strong and FOX ends up in a Batman Begins-type situation of strong- there will be another First Class pic. The more likely scenario is that they’ll go back and do a proper X-Men 4 with the better known characters (as Lauren Schuller-Donner has been pushing of late).

    Regardless, The Wolverine will be hitting in 2012 or 2013.

  9. The Incredible Hulk opened with $55 million in 2008, for Pete’s sake. This is a catastrophe.

    But yeah – Fox won’t let the franchise die due to one bomb. I mean, they’re making a Ghostrider sequel just to keep the rights.

  10. I agree. Kind of a disaster.

    And I can’t see who thought a ’60’s actioner with a lot of characters only hardcore fans really know would open huge.

    Batman Begins was also FAR removed from the other titles in the series…we were coming back to it from a long absence…once word of mouth caught on…I’ve had plenty of people tell me First Class was awesome. I have no need to see it. And I’m a pretty big fan of Vaughn.

  11. I still can’t understand populating a movie with young x-people, geared toward a younger crowd, and setting it IN THE ’60’S!
    Seriously…who thought that was a good idea? THe whole last part is set around the Cuban Missile Crisis? Wow…let’s just make another Batman origin and set it in the ’30’s…would probably be as huge as Dick Tracy-oh, wait-

  12. Their hands we’re kind of tied if they wanted Professor X and Magneto back. And I think Vaughn said this one kind of half started out as X-Men Origins: Magneto. They had that story developing for a while, then ending up combining it with the First Class idea.

    But I definitely don’t think it helped among young audiences that they featured president Kennedy talking about the Cuban Missile Crisis in the trailers and ads. Pretty damn prominently too. To an extent it seemed like An X-Men History Lesson.

  13. Watched the last third of X2 earlier. You know – I don’t think any of the X-Men films are all that great. I know X2 has somehow become one of the most respected superhero movies, but it just wasn’t that good – at least not the last chunk. It’s really all unrealized promise. Each film has some cool stuff – like raid on the school in X2 where Wolverine takes special ops guys out left and right, the final showdown in X3… but none of the films are that great overall. Only thing I’m really looking forward to going forward is more Wolverine.

  14. Saw the film – good, not great. Certainly not one of the best superhero movies, and not the best X-Men movie. I’d put both the original and X2 above it. Not sure about X3 yet. I’d give it a B-.

  15. “This is just an excellent start in launching a brand new chapter of the `X-Men’ franchise,” said Aronson, dismissing comparisons to the $85.1 million debut of Hugh Jackman’s “X-Men Origins: Wolverine” in 2009.

    “You can’t compare this one to any of the other `X-Men’ movies, except maybe” the first one, Aronson said. “Something like `Wolverine’ is a totally unfair comparison because that had a bonafide worldwide star in Hugh Jackman and arguably the most popular character in the `X-Men’ stable.”

  16. Hugh Jackman a ‘bonafide worldwide star’?

    Not even fun parsing that one…but ya gotta do what you can do to mitigate-
    I really want Vaughn to break a huge gross someday soon-don’t understand why he can’t seem to do that.

  17. Wow…let’s just make another Batman origin and set it in the ’30′s

    That actually sounds good, though.

  18. 1. X-Men: First Class – $55,101,604
    (Friday $21,398,778, Saturday $19,713,168)
    2. The Hangover Part II – $31,381,234 -63.5%

    Marco Trevisiol: X-Men First Class – $104 million
    1. Less +0.5
    2. Less +0.5

    filmman: X-Men – 85 million
    1. More
    2. Less +0.5

    Brian: X-Men – $81 million
    1. More
    2. Less +0.5

    Joe Webb: X-Men – 77.777m
    1. Less +0.5
    2. Less +0.5

    Rob Hunter: X-Men – $72.27 million
    1) More
    2) Less +0.5

    Juan: X-Men: First Class – $71 million
    1. Less +0.5
    2. Less +0.5

    Jackrabbit Slim: X-Men – 69 million
    1 More
    2. Less +0.5

    Jeanine: X-Men – $67 million +2
    1. Less +0.5
    2. Less +0.5

    Nick: X-Men: Economy Class – 65 million +4
    1. Less +0.5
    2. Less +0.5

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