AGEBOC ’11 – July 15-17

Standard

Predict the #1 film of the weekend.

The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points.

Bonus questions:

1. Which will earn the most this weekend: Winnie the Pooh or Zookeeper?

2. Will Horrible Bosses drop more or less than 35% in its second weekend?

Deadline is Thursday, July 14 23:59 pm (blog time).

To find out the rules of the game, go to the main thread for AGEBOC 09.

Current rankings

Jackrabbit Slim 25.5
Brian 18.5
Jeanine 16.5
Joe Webb 14.5
Filmman 14
Juan 11
Nick 9.5
Marco Trevisiol 7.5
Rob Hunter 7
James 2

49 responses »

  1. Harry Potter and The First Successful ‘If you haven’t read the books, this series ain’t for you’ Series – $155.555m

    1. Pooh
    2. More

  2. Harry Trek: The Wrath of Ron
    Warner Bros.: The Search for a New Cash Machine
    Octoweasley

  3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $133.57 million

    1. Pooh Bear Begins
    2. More

  4. Wait – I mistyped – I mean $133.75 million for Harry 8, not $133.57 million.

  5. Why aren’t they opening on Tuesday night like Transformers did?
    I was thinking Jeanine’s number was a bit remarkable…but 32 million? What is the ceiling for a movie for one weekend in a wide release of over 3,000 theaters, I wonder…

  6. Because I’m a good sport, I’ll share some information with you.

    With the increased number of screens with digital projection, it makes it super easy to play Harry Potter on EVERY single screen at a theater for a midnight show, and likely that every screen will sell to 100% occupancy.

    They might as well declare Friday “International Harry Potter Day”. Trying to get to your local theater Friday will be like going to the mall the day after Thanksgiving. Carpool, take transportation, or avoid it altogether.

  7. In response to opening Tuesday vs Thursday midnight, that is entirely up to the distributors. I think distributors open on a Wednesday so they can make it look like it grossed more over the weekend, or maybe to increase good word of mouth. It’s really beyond me because I don’t think it makes a difference.

    With Harry Potter, I don’t think WB really needs to do any of the usual “tricks” to entice people to come see it. In fact, I’m surprised they’re even wasting much money on advertising – people know.

  8. Why does digital projection make it so much easier to show it on every screen? Because WB doesn’t have to ship prints?

  9. Right, WB would have only had to make the number of prints that would have played over the weekend. But with digital theaters can play it on as many screens as they want and then reduce to 4 screens over the weekend.

  10. Aaaaannnddd….Nick wins. And makes me want to really see the movie with that title, which I picture as an aging Harry Potter ala Harry Brown, moving through whatever train station that is, zapping the thug-muggles (is that the word?) that beat-up all the new wizards running into the wall on the platform with a white flash from his wand (see what I did there?)

  11. Hairy Peter and the Dainty Hollows (I’m not a proud man.) $121 million.
    1) Poo
    2) Less

    Also, I’m on the road some where in Mississippi right now… so I don’t even know if I’m within the deadline.

  12. $43m overnight? Holy crap!

    Told you.

    With the increased number of screens with digital projection, it makes it super easy to play Harry Potter on EVERY single screen at a theater for a midnight show, and likely that every screen will sell to 100% occupancy.

    Any they sold out, too. These are the people that also go to bookstores at midnight to get the books the second they are on sale.

  13. If any of the bigwigs that invested in digital were still wondering if it was a good idea, I think last night’s midnight shows are proof that it was.

    Not that I like digital, but it’s the flexibility from a theater perspective that is really amazing.

  14. Told me? I was the one who posted that this is likely to do Dark Knight business and go nuts worldwide!! =)
    But I concede that you are likely to take first prize this week. Well played

    Have you seen it yet?

  15. Sorry Joe – “you” was a general term, I didn’t mean you specifically.

    I knew the midnight shows were going to be big, because my local theater sold out all 18 screens of HP midnights before Monday and were adding 3AM shows. I almost wish I could have been there last night to see nearly 3,000 people lined up for concessions all at the same time.

    I know we determined in year’s past that my “insider” knowledge wasn’t necessarily a factor, because it’s not like I’m predicting correctly every week. But just to prove it meant nothing this week – the “experts” at my company predicted Harry Potter at $135. I chose to go with a much higher estimate.

    Haven’t seen it yet. I did watch the recap link. Very helpful. I have a poor memory and seriously couldn’t remember how everything started.

  16. I thought we have, because technically, these shows were on Friday. The distributors will count midnight totals in the Fri – Sun.

    The only time we haven’t is when the shows are at 10pm. That’s happened before I think.

  17. Why does this question come up every year? We have always counted “Thursday” midnight shows because they are Friday’s grosses. Always.

  18. Brian, I think maybe you’re confused. For example, Transformers opened on a Wednesday, so those midnights don’t count.

    The “calendar date” versus “business date” has long been an issue in the industry. But distributors count anything after midnight (hence 12:01 AM) as opening day – even if it falls on the theater’s previous business day (our business day ends at 6:00 AM).

  19. The other question that always comes up is “What if no one guesses the #1 movie?” usually sometime in the August doldrums when low grosses and previously unknown movies leapfrog to the top

  20. Shit – this thing is gonna be massive. Seems like I need to start over-guessing.

  21. Well, I did think for some reason that HP opened on a Wednesday, accounting for my low guess.

    Still, I seem to remember Nick having to painstakingly separate out Thursday grosses. Perhaps Jeanine is right with this:

    The only time we haven’t is when the shows are at 10pm. That’s happened before I think.

  22. We counted the midnights for Dark Knight, so we’ll be including the midnights for Potter 8.

    Man, now they’re saying 95 million in one day. Madness.

  23. Has anyone else seen it? I went to a 10 a.m. show this morning; the theatre was only about a quarter full. I’ll write a review tonight unless someone beats me to it.

    Oh, and there’s a teaser for The Dark Knight Rises.

  24. Might see it tomorrow. Please, Slim, write up a review. I predict my own will be the pithy “It was awesome” or “I cried”

  25. Mojo estimates are $168.55, which of course gives Jeanine first.

    Zookeeper will beat Pooh comfortably. Horrible Bosses drops 37.7, so it looks like “More” is the winner there.

  26. Jeanine: HP7p2 – $158.5 million +4
    1. Winnie the Pooh
    2. more +0,5

    Joe Webb: Harry Potter and The First Successful ‘If you haven’t read the books, this series ain’t for you’ Series – $155.555m +2
    1. Pooh
    2. More +0,5

    Nick: Potter and the Deadly ‘Hallo!” part 2 – 143 million
    1. Zookeeper +0,5
    2. More +0,5

    Filmman: Harry Potter and blahblahblahblahblah: 125 million
    1. Winnie the Pooh
    2. More +0,5

    Juan: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $133.75 million
    1. Pooh Bear Begins
    2. More +0,5

    Jackrabbit Slim: Potter: 151 million
    1. Zookeeper +0,5
    2. More +0,5

    ROB: Hairy Peter and the Dainty Hollows (I’m not a proud man.) $121 million.
    1) Poo
    2) Less

    Brian: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 – $111 million
    1. Zookeeper +0,5
    2. More +0,5

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