AGEBOC ’11 – August 5-7

Standard

Predict the #1 film of the weekend.

The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points.

Bonus questions:

1. Will The Change-Up earn more or less than 15 million?

2. Will Rise average more per location this weekend than director Rupert Wyatt’s previous film, The Escapist, made in its entire US run ($13,439)?

Deadline is Thursday, August 4 23:59 pm (blog time).

To find out the rules of the game, go to the main thread for AGEBOC 09.

Current rankings
Jackrabbit Slim 28.5
Brian 24.5
Jeanine 22
Joe Webb 17.5
Filmman 16
Nick 15.5
Juan 14
Rob Hunter 8
Marco Trevisiol 7.5
James 2

25 responses »

  1. Make up a new title for Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Winner receives 0,5 points.

    What? Isn’t the point of bonus questions that any and all can get them? A single-winner question just doesn’t seem right, especially one as arbitrarily decided as this one. Who picks the winner, anyway? Are you recusing yourself?

    How about picking which of Smurfs or Cowboys will finish higher this weekend?

  2. I don’t think there is any specific point to the bonus questions. If you read the rules:

    What the bonus questions will be is up to whoever runs AGEBOC at the time, but they must be pertinent to the weekend in question.

    That is the only guideline for the bonus questions, so far. I seem to remember a few of James’ HAGEBOC questions being fairly arbitrary, but perhaps I remember wrong and how James runs HAGEBOC is up to him. If you wish your suggestion to be the guideline for how bonus questions work, I’ll let the others voice in with their opinions.

    There is a certain balance to strike with the bonus questions and it’s not always easy coming up with new ones that don’t involve nailing percentual drops from weekend to weekend (which I quite honestly don’t find that interesting). You can’t throw out questions that are too easy. I tend to estimate how good the bonus questions were by how many guessed differently from the others or lost half a point. If less than half got it right, I know I did a fairly good job. If everyone guessed the same and got it right, then they were far too easy.

    I thought about your suggestion, for example, but it’s almost certainly going to be The Smurds.

    But I welcome any suggestions on bonus questions (this is also stated in the rules). If anyone can come up with a new kind of bonus questions, I’ll surely appreciate it.

    I’ve thought about having a guess on the Rotten Tomatoes percentages (“will The Change-Up have a higher or lower rating than The Switch?”, but that would just mean people waited until late Thursday with their guesses. Or changed them up until then.

  3. I completely understand where you’re coming from. On the few occasions that I’ve run AGEBOC for a week, I was surprised by how hard coming up with bonus questions is.

    But it is a box-office contest, after all, and I think this question strays pretty far from the inherent purpose of the contest.

    Other alternate suggestions:

    1) Name the #3 film at the box office this weekend.
    2) Will The Whistleblower average more or less than $12,000 per location in limited release?
    3) Will Rise average more per location this weekend than director Rupert Wyatt’s previous film, The Escapist, made in its entire US run ($13,439)?

  4. But it is a box-office contest, after all, and I think this question strays pretty far from the inherent purpose of the contest.

    This I can agree with.

    I dig #3, good suggestion, so I’ll go with that one and change the other one.

    Although the idea of guessing earnings per location for limiteds is also a good one, so I think I might start doing that some more if the need comes up.

  5. Cool.

    In the spirit of you original question, though, I’ll be happy to think of a funny title. Funny to me, anyway.

  6. Zookeeper 2: The Rise of Bad CGI – $45 million
    1. More
    2. Less

    I’m not good with titles, so it’s the best I can do.

    I’m not sure what looks worse – the original Planet of the Apes with masks, or the CGI in this one. I hope when they make another Planet of the Apes reboot in 40 years that the animals don’t look so fake.

  7. SHIT – 50M
    1. More, but latest tracking is indicating a 12-13M opening. I’ve got to think it will go higher
    2. More

  8. The Movie You Chimpcists Keep Hating On But Which Is Actually Damn Good – $45.54 million

    1) More
    2) More

  9. Hope They Explain How We Lose With All Our Weapons – 42 Million

    1. More
    2. Less

    If you’re going to make a per-screen opening total question, can we get the number of screens? Should the onus be on the answerer to know that part of the question?

  10. Welcome back, James.

    Brian wins.

    Thanks. I was also considering The Patriape, but I was afraid that would open the door to a bunch of lame Mel Gibson jokes.

  11. Planet of the Gapes (an actual x-rated title) 39 million

    1. More
    2. More

    I’m late to the debate, but I don’t see how we can have bonus questions that have subjective answers.

  12. Early numbers suggest you’re spot-on, Slim. Meanwhile: between the Green Lantern and The Change-Up’s catastrophic Friday, Ryan Reynolds’ trip back to network television probably moved up another few years. I’d bet he’ll be on a series no later than 2014.

  13. I don’t know what happened between James’s post the other night and now, but now estimates seem to be around the $53 million mark, which means a knock-down, dragged-out, bare-knuckled fight between James and Nick. I look forward to a future Disney movie about AGEBOC, and the climactic scene in which James, bloodied and out of the race, nonetheless finds deep within himself the resolve to finish the race and grab points, showing us the indomitable human spirit.

  14. Bonus answers:
    1) Less
    2) More

    I still have an outside shot at 2nd if the finals come in higher than expected. Higher than 55.5 would do it. Which is possible if word of mouth is really strong, as it seems to be.

  15. Never one to miss an opportunity, I should point out that “more” or “less” is an invalid answer to a question posed as “Will such & such perform thusly?”
    Sure, someone could have answered “kumquat” and meant it to mean that Rise will average more than $13+k/theater for the weekend, just as “more” could have meant that Rise will open in more theaters than the Escapist. Perhaps it was mass-hysterically misinterpreted compounded by Brian’s original complaint yet failure to validly answer his own query.

    For this discovery I shall be awarded no less than 21 points (as stated in the AGEBOC ’07 rules which are held in perpetuity)

  16. Brian: The Declaration of Chimpdependence – $61 million
    1. Less +0,5
    2. More +0,5

    Nick: Ape Lincoln: 56 million +4
    1. Less +0,5
    2. More +0,5

    James: SHIT – 50M +2
    1. More, but latest tracking is indicating a 12-13M opening. I’ve got to think it will go higher
    2. More +0,5

    Rob: The Movie You Chimpcists Keep Hating On But Which Is Actually Damn Good – $45.54 million
    1) More
    2) More +0,5

    Jeanine: Zookeeper 2: The Rise of Bad CGI – $45 million
    1. More
    2. Less

    Joe Webb: Stickin’ with LaFours: [I’ve had it with these %$@%#!] Apes on a [*&%^$!@#] Bridge – $44.444m +21
    1. More
    2. No

    filmman: Hope They Explain How We Lose With All Our Weapons – 42 Million
    1. More
    2. Less

    Jackrabbit Slim: Planet of the Gapes (an actual x-rated title) 39 million
    1. More
    2. More +0,5

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