AGEBOC ’11 – August 26-28

Standard

Predict the #1 film of the weekend.

The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points.

Bonus questions:

1. Will Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark earn more or less than 14 million?

2. Will Colombiana earn more or less than 11 million?

Deadline is Thursday, August 25 23:59 pm (blog time).

To find out the rules of the game, go to the main thread for AGEBOC 09.

Current rankings
Brian 32
Jackrabbit Slim 31
Jeanine 23
Nick 21.5
Juan 18.5
Joe Webb 18
Filmman 16.5
Rob Hunter 13.5
Marco Trevisiol 7.5
James 4.5

31 responses »

  1. Will be an interesting weekend.

    Looking back, although opening Fright Night a week after the help probably looked good on paper – counter-programming, but Fright Night needed female viewers big time. Date night crowds and women attracted to Ferrell and such. I wonder if The Help will calm down enough for women to meander over to Dark for date night. I think Holmes’ presence might help.

  2. By the way, filmman joins the mathematically eliminated group this week. Joe remains mathematically alive, but can only force a tie.

  3. Joe Webb: The Great White Hopeelp – $15.5m
    1. Less
    2. Less

    Rob: Don’t Be Afraid Of The Help – $15.2 million
    1) Less
    2) Less

    Jackrabbit Slim: The Help – 15 million
    1. Less
    2. More

    Nick: Help – 14 million
    1. Less
    2. Less

    Brian: Wait, Actually You Should Be Afraid of the Dark – $18 million
    1. More
    2. Less

    Jeanine: Dark – 17
    1. Less
    2. More

    Juan: Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark – $15.5 million
    1. More
    2. Less

  4. I once again used math to arrive at my pick. Be nice if it proved itself useful after all those years learning it.

  5. We really shouldn’t count this week due to the closures, which I feel gives The Help an unfair advantage.

  6. Wow, tough love.
    I would amend this week, also. However, this happened was it last year or two years ago? One of those huge snow storms ruined business…but we soldiered through.
    However, all subways in NYC are closed down…that is a precedent.

  7. As the person who’s likely most disadvantaged under Juan and filmman’s logic, I have to agree with Jackrabbit Slim’s “tough rocks” approach. By the deadline this week, we all knew or could have known that the storm had the possibility to throw a huge wrench in the gears. I’m more sympathetic if Nick complains, just because he probably hasn’t been inundated with 24/7 news coverage like the rest of us, but the rest of us really have no excuse if we, like myself, completely forgot that major weather events can affect box office.

    Although since Nick stands to win right now, I’m telling him “tough rocks” if he complains too.

  8. Are folks seriously suggesting this week’s tally be scrapped? That’s more than a little bit silly. This is a game of predictions made with the best information at the time. The only exception I could ever really foresee would be if a film was entirely yanked from release the day of opening. Brian’s right in that we all knew there was a hurricane hitting the East coast, but whether you took that into account or not is irrelevant to the game. Last I heard AGEBOC is not in the short list that includes death and taxes…

  9. The only exception I could ever really foresee would be if a film was entirely yanked from release the day of opening. Brian’s right in that we all knew there was a hurricane hitting the East coast, but whether you took that into account or not is irrelevant to the game.

    I wouldn’t go so far as to say it’s irrelevant … I could imagine scrapping a week in the event of an unforeseen disaster with an exceedingly wide impact. Something like another 9/11 scenario or catastrophic L.A. earthquake or similar scenarios might warrant taking the week off. Although I’d agree that this hurricane wouldn’t qualify even if we didn’t know it was coming. Storms happen.

    A film being pulled, or its release drastically reduced at the last minute, would be interesting. I’m not sure whether or not I’d favor cancelling in that situation. It might be worth a discussion in the offseason to make a rule for possible cancellation scenarios.

  10. I just want a photograph of the front cover of the book Nick creates called “Official Gone Elsewhere [H]AGEBOC rules and regulations”.

  11. I just want a photograph of the front cover of the book Nick creates called “Official Gone Elsewhere [H]AGEBOC rules and regulations”.

    I will call it the “Rules of Advanced Gone Elsewhere Box Office Challenge.”

    I had a comment but it seems that I must have forgotten to press post.

    Anyhow, tough rocks, or whatever it is you Americans say.

    They ain’t going to forfeit a horserace if it suddenly starts raining in the middle of it. Either you took the clouds into account when you made your bet or you didn’t.

    It would require something more game affecting than weather to disregard an entire weekend. The internet breaking down before the deadline, for example. A nuclear ashcloud blocking out all communication and hope of life. A film being pulled, maybe, would depend on a few factors.

  12. This is the first time I’ve ever heard “tough rocks”. Interesting phrase that illustrates the looseness of [American] English slang. You can say “tough” anything and everyone will understand what you mean….

  13. Besides which, it looks like Nick could get the bonus. Estimates are The Help at 14.3. I would get second, which is enough to get me past Brian with one week to go. But if it goes too much higher Rob and Joe are in play.

  14. Actuals are in.

    1. The Help – $14,536,118
    2. Colombiana – $10,408,176
    4. Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark – $8,525,728

    Jackrabbit wins and takes my bonus. Man, tough socks.

    At least I got to keep my second place points from Rob, though it was close.

    Joe Webb: The Great White Hopeelp – $15.5m
    1. Less +0.5
    2. Less +0.5

    Rob: Don’t Be Afraid Of The Help – $15.2 million
    1) Less +0.5
    2) Less +0.5

    Jackrabbit Slim: The Help – 15 million +4 +2
    1. Less +0.5
    2. More

    Nick: Help – 14 million +2
    1. Less +0.5
    2. Less +0.5

    Brian: Wait, Actually You Should Be Afraid of the Dark – $18 million
    1. More
    2. Less +0.5

    Jeanine: Dark – 17
    1. Less +0.5
    2. More

    Juan: Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark – $15.5 million
    1. More
    2. Less +0.5

  15. Tough socks! Now you’re getting it! I am truly kicking myself here because I had planned originally to split Slim and Nick and go with 14.5m

    Instincts cannot keep me from falling…I’ve learned that by now

  16. Funnily enough I believe tough turkey might be acceptable (as well as talk turkey, but that’s completely different)
    Oh, and I forgot to post the video that went with my previous comment

  17. The weekend wasn’t far off from what the industry was estimating last Monday. I was on vacation, so I didn’t have access to my “insider” estimates. But they posted a guess of The Help at $15 (#1). Granted, everything else was a lot lower than they predicted. But they were right with the #1 pick.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s