HAGEBOC ’11, Week 5

Standard

Predict the #1 film for the weekend of December 16-18, 2011. The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points. Bonus questions are worth half a point each.

Bonus questions:

1. Will Twilight: Breaking Dawn fall out of the top five?

2. Will Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked outperform the previous Alvin movie’s opening weekend of 48.8 million?

The deadline is on Thursday at midnight, EST.

Standings:

Jeanine: 9.5
James: 9.5
Filmman: 5
Nick: 4.5
Jackrabbit Slim: 4
Joe: 2.5
Juan: 2
Marco: 1.5
Rob: 1

About Jackrabbit Slim

Location: Vegas, Baby! I’m much older than the other whippersnappers here, a baby boomer. I tend to be more snobbish about film, disdaining a lot of the multiplex fare for “cinema.” My favorite films: Woody Allen’s oeuvre (up until about 1990), The Godfather, The Graduate, A Hard Day’s Night, Pulp Fiction. Politics: Well, George McGovern was my political hero. I’m also a prickly atheist. Occupation: Poised to be an English teacher in Las Vegas. For many years I was an editor at Penthouse Magazine. My role on this blog seems to be writing lots of reviews and being the resident Oscar maven.

28 responses »

  1. Sherlock Holmes, 63.5 million

    1. Yes
    2. No

    Just a reminder that the deadline is tomorrow night. Neither of our leaders have chimed in yet. Right now Rob and I are both looking good.

  2. Sherlock Holmes – 50 million
    1. Yes
    2. No

    Sorry I’m late…I’ve been in Dallas on business so I haven’t had a lot of free time, and I don’t have a computer at the hotel.

  3. Great, now we just need James and Joe.

    Next week we have a big movie opening on Tuesday, which means we’ll have a Monday at midnight deadline. I’ll try to get the questions up as soon as I can, maybe tomorrow night even, to give everybody ample warning.

  4. Closing bell!

    filmman

    Sherlock Holmes – 71 million

    1. No
    2. No

    Joe Webb

    SheerLUCK 2 – Electric Boogaloo! $67.890m

    1. Yes
    2. Yes

    Marco Trevisiol

    Sherlock Holmes 2 – $66.4m

    1. Yes
    2. Yes

    Jackrabbit Slim

    Sherlock Holmes, 63.5 million

    1. Yes
    2. No

    Juan

    Sherlock Holmes – $62 million

    1. No
    2. No

    Nick

    Sherlock Holmes – 59 million
    1. No
    2. Yes

    Rob

    SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 – $55.1 million

    1) No
    2) No

    Jeanine

    Sherlock Holmes – 50 million
    1. Yes
    2. No

    James

    HOLMES 45M
    NO
    NO

    As a reminder, I’ll put up the next week’s questions tomorrow morning, which will have a Monday night deadline.

  5. Didn’t even think of this – but the TDK:R (Warner Bros.) prologue is playing in front of Paramount Pictures’ Mission Impossible 4. WTF? Apparently Mi4 got booked into IMAX and Holmes couldn’t or WB just didn’t bother. But why not hold the prologue for the next WB IMAX release? Dumbasses.

  6. Brian may know more about this, since he was a theater manager (I was a lowly usher in my time working at a movie theater), or maybe Jeanine knows, but I’m not sure a studio can dictate what trailers play before a film. Anyway, I don’t think it’s dumb–I think it’s in a studio’s best interest to get people to theaters. With the competition with the various methods of watching films at homes, all studios should be pushing to see movies in theaters, even if they are from different studios. Fans of MI4 will see the Dark Knight, and vice versa.

  7. Studios do attach specific trailers to specific movies. It’s just that with IMAX, Mi4 was the only choice.

  8. It’s another down weekend for the Box Office. Both Holmes and Alvin are down from their previous installments’ debuts – significantly.

    In theory – audiences showing up in lesser numbers for sequels is a good thing, but this is dire news for the box office.

  9. Dang, this is bad. The industry needs these movies to have serious Christmas legs. And Mi4 needs to do decently. And it would help if Tintin did well. Step it up, audiences!

  10. this is dire news for the box office.

    1. Look at the worldwide box office. Entertainment conglomerates (of which there are 4) are doing fine. There’s never been better times to make money on presenting ANYTHING. Just look at the ten iterations of Storage Wars and Hardcore Pawn, Pawn Stars, American Pickers…all those channels need to be filled with something.

    2. This has all happened before and this will all happen again: http://www.paulrossen.com/paulinekael/whymoviesbad.html

  11. In response to trailers – Paramount can specify that exhibitors have to play a specific Paramount trailer. But since theaters play 5-6+ trailers, it means that they can play whatever they want.

    Also, since MI4 was exclusive at IMAX/Large Format screens this weekend, it means it was the ONLY thing playing on IMAX this week. Hence why Holmes was not in IMAX.

  12. More on trailers:

    Studios actually attach a trailer to the first reel of a 35mm print. That doesn’t mean that theatres have to play them – they can just cut them off, and once the movie that the trailer is advertising opens, they usually do – but I can only remember once or twice when I was instructed to remove it otherwise.

    Although back in my early days as a projectionist, working at a small chain, I simply chose whatever trailers I wanted to program. Occasionally the temptation to make mischief presented itself – I think we can all agree that putting the red-band From Dusk Till Dawn trailer on a kids movie would have been funny – but that I never really pushed the boundaries quite like that. If I wanted to see a trailer, though (this was pre-internet, or at least pre-streaming internet video), I’d find a spot somewhere regardless of how appropriate it was.

    It was only later when I started working for a major chain that I got strict instructions as to which trailers to program, although even then for most movies I was given a choice. For example, for any given movie I was given two or three that HAD to be on there, but then I could choose from a list of 4 or 5 for the remaining spots. For the major releases, though, I didn’t have much flexibility at all.

    I have no idea how it works now in the digital exhibition age, but I imagine the decision-making is more centralized and not up to individual projectionists, especially since there basically are no projectionists anymore.

  13. since there basically are no projectionists anymore.

    Ugh. The sad, sorry state of modern filmgoing. A pimply kid without any interest in film loads platters when they come in and hits a switch on a computer and fires up a lamp that gives ONLY enough light to see the image…and no more.
    The Dark Knight was such a TERRIBLE presentation that I’m still not over it.

  14. Great anecdote Brian…very visual. Thanks for sharing. I can see you at the splicer, unrolling reels of film and cutting or splicing in trailers. I’m smiling…

  15. Actuals are in:

    Sherlock Holmes, 39.6

    1. No (it finished fifth)
    2. No (not by a long shot)

    filmman

    Sherlock Holmes – 71 million

    1. No (+.5)
    2. No (+.5)

    Joe Webb

    SheerLUCK 2 – Electric Boogaloo! $67.890m

    1. Yes
    2. Yes

    Marco Trevisiol

    Sherlock Holmes 2 – $66.4m

    1. Yes
    2. Yes

    Jackrabbit Slim

    Sherlock Holmes, 63.5 million

    1. Yes
    2. No (+.5)

    Juan

    Sherlock Holmes – $62 million

    1. No (+.5)
    2. No (+.5)

    Nick

    Sherlock Holmes – 59 million
    1. No (+.5)
    2. Yes

    Rob

    SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 – $55.1 million

    1) No (+.5)
    2) No (+.5)

    Jeanine

    Sherlock Holmes – 50 million (+2)
    1. Yes
    2. No (+.5)

    James

    HOLMES 45M (+4)
    NO (+.5)
    NO (+.5)

  16. A pimply kid without any interest in film loads platters when they come in and hits a switch on a computer and fires up a lamp that gives ONLY enough light to see the image…and no more.

    Two things:

    1) Hey, I WAS that pimply kid once upon a time.

    2) What I’m saying is that there are no more platters and no more pimply kids. That ship has sailed. Just pre-programmed, automated projectors that some tech guy checks up on now and again.

  17. A) There aren’t even people to come in and turn on the lamps or computers because that’s all automated based on the showtimes. The projectors literally start themselves. The managers are “trained” to troubleshoot issues which means they ultimately call the support centers to walk them through how to fix something.

    B) Trailer placement was heavily dictated from corporate (exhibitors) about 5+ years ago. Projectionists didn’t really get much of a choice, except in cases where the film had been open a week or so, and the trailers needed to be changed out. Even then, it was pretty common to see “replace trailer X with trailer Y”.

    And yes, now that everything is all digital, trailer placement is also pre-programmed remotely.

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