AGEBOC ’12 – May 4-6

Standard

Predict the #1 film of the weekend.

The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points.

Bonus questions:

1. Will The Avengers have a higher or lower per theater average on its opening weekend than The Dark Knight ($36,283)?

2. What will be the second highest grossing film of the weekend?

Super-extra-summer-bonus questions (1 point each, to be cashed in at the end of summer season 2012, September 4 2012)

1. What will be the highest grossing film of summer 2012?

2. What will be the biggest bomb? (budget against its grosses, based on Box-Office Mojo’s numbers September 4 2012)

3. What will be the biggest surprise? (budget against its grosses, based on Box-Office Mojo’s numbers September 4 2012)

4. Which of these four sci-fi’s will be the highest grosser of summer 2012?

A. MIB3
B. Battleship
C. Prometheus
D. Total Recall

5. What will be the highest grossing film that premiered in August?

Deadline is Thursday, May 3 23:59 pm (blog time)

To find out the rules of the game, go to the main thread for AGEBOC 09.

Current rankings

TBD

57 responses »

  1. The Avengers – 145M
    2. No
    3. Think like a Man

    1. The Dark Knight Rises

    2. I’m not sure how to answer this one:
    I would say The Amazing Spider-Man based on the limp marketing, the rumors that the studio hates the final product and the budget being a crazy 220 million. But since the budget number hasn’t been confirmed, I’ll go with Battleship. Everyone with a project at Universal is terrified of the fallout come late May.

    3. What will be the biggest surprise? (budget against its grosses, based on Box-Office Mojo’s numbers September 4 2012)
    I’m assuming positive surprise? Ted.

    4. Which of these four sci-fi’s will be the highest grosser of summer 2012?
    MIB 3

    5. What will be the highest grossing film that premiered in August?
    The Campaign

  2. Didn’t we do long-range bonus questions one year (what will the summer’s higher grosser be? the biggest bomb? etc?) That was fun. I think it was 2008?

  3. The Avengers – 133m
    1. Lower
    2. TLAM

    Bonus:
    1. TDKR
    2. MiB3
    3. Abe Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
    4. C
    5. Expendables 2

  4. Didn’t we do long-range bonus questions one year (what will the summer’s higher grosser be? the biggest bomb? etc?) That was fun. I think it was 2008?

    That’s not a bad idea. A few questions now, point each, have a cash out at the end of the summer season.

  5. Hey, guys!

    I’ve updated this week with five bonus questions worth a point each that will cash out at the end of the summer season. If you want in you’ll have to put in your guesses before deadline tomorrow.

  6. The Avengers –

    1. Higher
    2. Think Like a Man?

    Why did everyone answer either yes or no for 1? Did I misunderstand?

    Bonus Questions:

    1. The Avengers. By FAR. (Too many diehards upset about Bane).
    2. Battleship.
    3. G.I. Joe: Retaliation (Replaced Fast and Furious as the ‘Who the f*#k is watching this?’ movie franchise).
    4. Prometheus
    5. Wow. Recall or Expendables 2………..I’ll say Expendables 2.

  7. Updated:

    THE AVENGERS! $179.1 million
    1. Higher
    2. THINK LIKE A MAN

    Bonus:
    1. Tricky because of the September 4th cutoff… so I’ll go with THE AVENGERS
    2. BATTLESHIP
    3. I don’t really understand this question… is it basically asking what film will have the highest profit margin? TED
    4. MIB3
    5. THE BOURNE LEGACY

  8. I’m honestly asking: Can anyone give a shit about a Jeremy Renner Bourne with a writer as the director? The bar was set *pretty* high by Damon and Liman and Greengrass…no?

  9. What hesitation would there be with Gilroy directing his own script? Michael Clayton was excellent and I enjoyed Duplicity a great deal. He’s also got a terrific cast surrounding Renner.

  10. Why did everyone answer either yes or no for 1? Did I misunderstand?

    Thanks for bringing that up.

    For all y’all’s interest – I’m going to interpret a “Yes” as “Higher” and a “No” as “Lower”

    3. I don’t really understand this question… is it basically asking what film will have the highest profit margin? TED

    Yes. “Positive surprise” as James puts it.

    Gross until September 4th minus budget, budget no higher than $150 million (according to Box-Office Mojo or, if unavailable, next best reliable source).

  11. What hesitation would there be with Gilroy directing his own script? Michael Clayton was excellent and I enjoyed Duplicity a great deal. He’s also got a terrific cast surrounding Renner.

    I’m not arguing the merits of the movie. I’m sure it’ll be great, I also liked Duplicity. I’m saying who gives a shit to make it a blockbuster. Hardly. It’ll be a modest earner, but nothing more than that.

  12. Avengers–170 million

    1. Higher
    2. Think Like a Man

    bonus:

    1. Dark Knight Rises
    2. Snow white and the huntsman
    3. To Rome With Love
    4. Prometheus
    5. Bourne Legacy

  13. 1. The Dark Knight Rises
    2. Battleship
    3. Ted
    4. MIB 3
    5. The Bourne Legacy

  14. WAIT – just watched the Expendables 2 trailer and want to change my answer to question 5 to Expendables 2!!!

  15. The Avengers: 125 million
    1. Lower
    2. Think Like a Man (what else?)

    Super-duper boni:
    1. The Dark Knight Rises
    2. Total Recall
    3. The Dictator
    4. MIB3 (though I expect all 4 to be disappointing to their respective studios)
    5. The Bourne Legacy

    I assume 2 and 3 are to be calculated in actual dollar amounts, and not percentages, right? In other words, if The Dictator costs say, $30 million, and makes $100 million, then we’re determining that to be a $70 million surplus and not a 3.3x budget, right? I just ask so that some $1 million cheapie isn’t judged a big “positive surprise” because it makes $8 million.

  16. Avengers – $140 mil
    1. Lower
    2. Think Like A Man

    Bonus:
    1. Dark Knight Rises
    2. MIB3
    3. Seeking a Friend for the End of the World
    4. Prometheus
    5. The Bourne Legacy

  17. I assume 2 and 3 are to be calculated in actual dollar amounts, and not percentages, right? In other words, if The Dictator costs say, $30 million, and makes $100 million, then we’re determining that to be a $70 million surplus and not a 3.3x budget, right? I just ask so that some $1 million cheapie isn’t judged a big “positive surprise” because it makes $8 million.

    Hmm… for 2, yes, but I was actually considering the latter for 3, mostly to avoid having a film like Dark Knight Rises (if it earns say 450 on a 200 million budget) become the “big surprise”.

    But I see your point, so we’ll put a roof for 3 on what is considered a surprise as a budget above 150 million, with a caveat that if there’s some half million dollar film earning 20 million it will have to be judged as part of the equation in some manner (judging what is a surprise turned out to be complicated).

    This may affect some of your guesses, guys. Those having GI Joe 2 as a guess, for example.

  18. Avengers – $165 million
    1. Higher
    2. Think Like A Man (yeah, I don’t know what I was thinking)

    Bonises:
    1. Dark Knight Rises
    2. Battleship
    3. The Campaign
    4. Prometheus
    5. Bourne Legacy

  19. “The Avengers is fu*#ing amazing!”

    Every other status on my facebook feed. *Everyone* went to this thing…

    I personally do not agree with the assessment for number 3 and believe it should be scrapped all-together.
    When Retaliation makes 300 million, every newspaper is going to yell ‘surprise’.

  20. yeah, that kind of affects my guess, as Woody Allen has never had a budget of 150 million. I’m with filmman on this one, unless we have a chance to alter the guesses.

  21. Also want to give a shout-out to that banner. Pretty excellent.
    ‘Lifestyle-affirming indie for liberals’

  22. yeah, that kind of affects my guess, as Woody Allen has never had a budget of 150 million.

    I’m more confused than ever. I think Nick meant to say that movies with budgets over $150 million are ineligible? Because his whole rationale was that he didn’t want movies like The Dark Knight Rises to be “surprises”. But then that doesn’t address my point about indie movies, except for some vague talk about them being “part of the equation”.

    So I agree with the others – either we lock down the criteria here, or we scrap the question.

  23. 18M for The Avengers at midnight. It’s going to come in much lower than Hunger Games, but younger children (an audience the Hunger Games did not enjoy) might mean a big uptick tomorrow and Sunday.

  24. Man, I thought I had the lowball estimate cornered and now I find out the Carstensss sandwiched me!!

    I see how it’s gonna be this year…

  25. Believe it or not, I paid no attention to anyone else’s guesses, except for a quick scan to make sure that no one already guessed the number I had in mind.

  26. I’m not saying it’s going to be that low, I’m just saying that I no longer solely occupy one end of the spectrum….

  27. I almost put The Watch (aka Neighborhood Watch) as the “biggest surprise” but didn’t. If the red band trailer is any indicator: it’s going to make a lot of money.

  28. I went at 9:15 am today (which may be the earliest I’ve ever seen a film theatrically) and it was like 75% full in IMAX.

    When I left, there were probably 50 people in line for the next showing, which didn’t start for 45 minutes. Not sure how it was fairing on the non-IMAX screens.

    As for the movie: Brian pretty much hit it on the head with his description in Openings.

  29. $200 million. Biggest opening of all time. In one weekend it’s topped the lifetime domestic grosses of Thor and Captain America. Worldwide it’s already topped every single Marvel movie.

  30. Yeah, I don’t think there’s going to be much debate about the results of this one. Well done, Rob and Slim! Hitting the ground running.

    Should have next week’s up some time tomorrow.

    Rob: THE AVENGERS! $179.1 million +4
    1. Higher +0.5
    2. THINK LIKE A MAN +0.5

    Jackrabbit Slim: Avengers–170 million +2
    1. Higher +0.5
    2. Think Like a Man +0.5

    Juan: The Avengers – $167 million
    1. Yes. +0.5
    2. Think Like a Man +0.5

    Nick: Avengers – $165 million
    1. Higher +0.5
    2. Think Like A Man +0.5

    filmman: The Avengers – 150 million
    1. Higher +0.5
    2. Think Like a Man? +0.5

    James: The Avengers – 145M
    2. No
    3. Think like a Man +0.5

    Jeanine: Avengers – $140 mil
    1. Lower
    2. Think Like A Man +0.5

    Joe Webb: The Avengers – 133m
    1. Lower
    2. TLAM +0.5

    Brian: The Avengers: 125 million
    1. Lower
    2. Think Like a Man (what else?) +0.5

  31. 3 is vague, I agree. I wanted to have some kind of “surprise” element in there because those are usually the ones most interesting to me but, what can I say, it’s hard to numerically quantify the nature of a surprise.

    We’ll skip it.

    Nick:
    1. Dark Knight Rises
    2. Battleship
    3. The Campaign
    4. Prometheus
    5. Bourne Legacy

    Jeanine:
    1. Dark Knight Rises
    2. MIB3
    3. Seeking a Friend for the End of the World
    4. Prometheus
    5. The Bourne Legacy

    Brian:
    1. The Dark Knight Rises
    2. Total Recall
    3. The Dictator
    4. MIB3 (though I expect all 4 to be disappointing to their respective studios)
    5. The Bourne Legacy

    Juan:
    1. The Dark Knight Rises
    2. Battleship
    3. Ted
    4. MIB 3
    5. The Bourne Legacy

    Jackrabbit Slim:
    1. Dark Knight Rises
    2. Snow white and the huntsman
    3. To Rome With Love
    4. Prometheus
    5. Bourne Legacy

    Rob:
    1. Tricky because of the September 4th cutoff… so I’ll go with THE AVENGERS
    2. BATTLESHIP
    3. I don’t really understand this question… is it basically asking what film will have the highest profit margin? TED
    4. MIB3
    5. THE BOURNE LEGACY

    filmman:
    1. The Avengers. By FAR. (Too many diehards upset about Bane).
    2. Battleship.
    3. G.I. Joe: Retaliation (Replaced Fast and Furious as the ‘Who the f*#k is watching this?’ movie franchise).
    4. Prometheus
    5. Wow. Recall or Expendables 2………..I’ll say Expendables 2.

    Joe Webb:
    1. TDKR
    2. MiB3
    3. Abe Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
    4. C
    5. Expendables 2

    James:
    1. The Dark Knight Rises
    2. I’m not sure how to answer this one:
    I would say The Amazing Spider-Man based on the limp marketing, the rumors that the studio hates the final product and the budget being a crazy 220 million. But since the budget number hasn’t been confirmed, I’ll go with Battleship. Everyone with a project at Universal is terrified of the fallout come late May.
    3. What will be the biggest surprise? (budget against its grosses, based on Box-Office Mojo’s numbers September 4 2012)
    I’m assuming positive surprise? Ted.

    4. Which of these four sci-fi’s will be the highest grosser of summer 2012?
    MIB 3
    5. What will be the highest grossing film that premiered in August?
    The Campaign

  32. Huh. Not even SLIM’s ringing endorsement is making me the least bit interested in seeing The Avengers. …not sure what’s going on here.

  33. If you loved comic books as a kid you’ll love The Avengers. It made me remember what I liked about them in the first place, which has been lost in some of the comic books movies.

  34. Huh. Not even SLIM’s ringing endorsement is making me the least bit interested in seeing The Avengers. …not sure what’s going on here.

    Well, nobody’s putting a gun to your head. But if you want to keep talking about I suggest you do.

  35. Welp….just looked at a behind-the-scenes photo of The Avengers. Looks like they shot on the Arri Alexa. Looks like I’m going to watch The Avengers.

  36. Hard to figure this one. As noted, it’s more successful by a large margin than any of the other Marvel movies. I didn’t think the marketing was all that exceptional – for example, the trailer didn’t really have any standout images for people to grab onto. The villian is an obscure figure, and from the least popular of the preceding films. Other than Downey, there aren’t any real and true box-office draws in the cast, and AFAIK Iron Man 2 was quickly forgotten by just about everyone. And not that people care, but the director has done most of his work in TV.

  37. Interesting thing on Edward Norton’s Facebook:

    Had this thought today:

    Eric Bana went from being the next Mel Gibson in Chopper to being…….The Hulk.
    Edward Norton went from being the next Robert DeNiro in movies like Primal Fear and American History X to being……The Hulk.
    Mark Ruffalo went from being the next Marlon Brando in You Can Count on Me to……….The Hulk.

  38. If I’d seen the red-band trailer for The (Neighborhood) Watch before I set the bonus questions, I would have included it in question 4.

  39. I didn’t see it the first time James said it and I don’t see it watching it again because Nick said it.

  40. Yeah, you either dig the type of humor or you don’t. I find the occasional, well-made raunchy comedy (particularly with a cast that talented) enjoyable.

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