AGEBOC ’12 – July 20-22

Standard

Predict the #1 film of the weekend.

The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points.

Bonus questions:

1. Will The Dark Knight Rises earn more or less than $25 million on its midnight opening alone? (for reference, The Avengers earned $18.7 million and The Dark Knight earned $18.5 million

2. Will The Dark Knight Rises earn more or less than The Avengers its average earnings per theater (The Avengers earned $47,698 on average per screen, on 4,349 screens, for a $207,438,708 weekend gross. The Dark Knight earned $36,283 on 4,366 screens for $158,411,483 gross)?

Deadline is Thursday, July 19 23:59 pm (blog time)

To find out the rules of the game, go to the main thread for AGEBOC 09.

Current rankings

filmman – 20
Rob – 18
Juan – 17
Joe Webb – 16.5
Jackrabbit Slim – 13.5
Jeanine – 15
James – 11.5
Nick – 10
Brian – 4.5

68 responses »

  1. TDKR – 187M
    1. Less
    2. Less

    Reviews of The Dark Knight Rises seem to be leaning towards “decent, but disorganized and not as good as the last one” which worries me as I felt TDK was a downgrade from Batman Begins. It’s so hard to make a decent sequel, but I’d hoped Nolan would have figured out how. I can’t imagine I won’t enjoy it more than The Avengers, but probably not Chronicle.

  2. Pretty sure it will still be decent, even if it’s not as good as either of the previous ones.

    But hey, keep pummelling me with those lowered expectations. Not seeing it until Wednesday next week.

  3. It’s so hard to make a decent sequel, but I’d hoped Nolan would have figured out how

    TDK was SO far above a ‘decent’ sequel that I don’t understand this sentence.

  4. TDKR – 195 million

    1. Less (No 3D screenings)
    2. Man, I don’t understand math. Less? More? How many screens is it on? How many less than Avengers? There are no 3D screenings, so…and the longer running time and oh, no…I’ve gone cross-eyed.

  5. Man, I don’t understand math. Less? More? How many screens is it on? How many less than Avengers? There are no 3D screenings, so…and the longer running time and oh, no…I’ve gone cross-eyed.

    Haha, yes, my work here is done.

  6. This is what AGEBOC is for, and this is why people still go to theaters. Even with my “insider” information, I still have no idea. With digital projection, not only is the midnight potential unlimited (it can play on all screens), but so is the weekend potential because theaters can play the film on as many screens as is profitable. And even though it’s not 3D, there are three times as many IMAX screens than there were 4 years ago – which costs just as much as 3D.

    I’m going to go out on a limb and call it a record-breaker. We’ve been watching all of Nolan’s films again and except for Insomnia, I remember *needing* to see each of his films a second time immediately after seeing it the first time. So here goes nothing:

    The Dark Knight Rises – $210 million
    1. Yes
    2. Yes – I know that’s crazy talk, but it depends on if they use the “official” screen count, (~4350+) or the unofficial screen count, where managers add screens as needed. So official screen count, yes; revised screen count, no. I’m pretty sure they used the official screen count for Avengers, so I would assume it would be the same with TDKR.

    God help us prove you can have a record breaker without 3D.

  7. One more thing. I don’t think the reviews hurt or help the film. People are going to see it because they want to see what happens, even if it’s sloppy. And I think Tom Hardy is underrated (partly due to his film roles thus far). I really hope he gets to shine.

  8. Yeah….I was wrestling with this last night. I think it will break the records, too.

  9. It doesn’t surprise me. Does no one remember Newsies? I know he hates it now, but I could still sing the soundtrack (not that I could endure watching the movie now). This is really embarrassing, but for a high school history project, I made a Newsies costume for my Ken doll and had him holding a “strike” picket sign. Needless to say I did not get a passing grade because it did not represent a “major” event in history.

    My point is – the 90’s were full of interesting movie choices for Bale.

  10. Corrected mine. By “no”, I meant less. I think the lack of kid friendliness is going to keep TDKR below The Avengers in terms of opening.

    My son is obsessed with Batman right now (he often wears a full Batman costume while playing the Batman Lego games) but I wouldn’t dream of letting him watch any of Nolan’s films until he’s much older. Unfortunately, the 90’s films are terrible so he’s kind of out of luck until WB reboots.

  11. FYI – Box Office Mojo is reporting that TDKR will be on 4,404 screens. I’m going to change my 2nd guess to “Less”…so just a recap:

    TDKR – 210 Million
    1. More
    2. Less (I still think it can manage $40,000+ per screen though).

  12. I’m curious as to whether the length could hurt grosses. My local IMAX is only showing 4 shows daily, which is unusual.

    Granted, it’s on 4 standard screens as well (and one additional for evening shows) – but there’s certainly a limit to how many showings they can fit in with a near-three hour runtime.

  13. I tried watching ’89 for the first time in at least a decade the other day, I can’t believe it was ever one of my favorite movies. The production design and some of the performances are great (and Elfman’s score remains as iconic as ever) but it’s pretty embarrassing otherwise.

  14. I tried watching ’89 for the first time in at least a decade the other day, I can’t believe it was ever one of my favorite movies. The production design and some of the performances are great (and Elfman’s score remains as iconic as ever) but it’s pretty embarrassing otherwise.

    I felt kind of the same way when I watched it again a few years ago. I don’t know if I’d go so far as “embarrassing”, but Burton’s deficiencies as a filmmaker are very evident. The action scenes especially are downright amateurish.

  15. Wait……..let me……………………………….need to catch my……………….breath…………did……one of you…..just call…..Burton’s Batman……..*amateurish*?!
    ….I can’t…..I have to step away. I’ll be back to comment. I just…………..

  16. Wait, AND *embarrassing*?!
    ….I can’t….I just…..is this what a stroke feels like?

  17. Tim Burton has struggled with action scenes his whole career. This is about as controversial an opinion as “Steven Spielberg can be overly sentimental” or “Christopher Walken has a very distinctive cadence”.

  18. A $50 million just just seems too big to me. The last opening was crazy huge as it is. And then there’s been some serious backlash regarding the last movie and Nolan in general. Also – the villain looks lame. It being the supposed last in the series will balance some of that out, but $50 million more?

  19. LOVE this bit from the New Republic review
    :
    “Taking Nolan seriously as a social commentator is giving him more credit than he deserves. He has nothing to tell us about good or evil, other than the idea that evildoing and darkness are by definition profound. I remember being 17 when The Matrix was released, and partaking in endless conversations about “what is real” before grasping that it was these chats that explained the movie’s success much more than the slow-motion fights did. Audiences want one thing more than entertainment: They want to feel respected. If only Christopher Nolan actually respected them.”

  20. Hardy as Bane looks lame?! I’m gonna just have to divorce myself from this thread…this *has to be* what a stroke feels like.

  21. I’m gonna just have to divorce myself from this thread….

    Feel free, if all you have to offer is “OMG!!! PEOPLE DISAGREE WITH ME!!!”

  22. Even at the time, I never much cared for Burton’s Batman. I remember watching it and school on video back in 1990 and found it pretty boring. Mind you, it looked like a masterwork compared to ‘Batman and Robin’, a really bad combination of kitsch and heavy-handed action. Probably a blessing in disguise for Clooney it failed in the context of his career.

    As for Wells, iirc it was James who said a while back that for all his wailing against modern Hollywood he’s a pushover when it comes to mainstream Hollywood fare. Haven’t seen much evidence against that in recent times.

  23. ET TU, MARCO?!
    You are all godless heathens. Keaton’s Batman was a masterstroke, and Nicholson’s Joker, though broad, is nearly perfect in a ‘comic book’ sense.

    On my way to see TDKR. Will emerge in about 4 hours with effusive, unwavering praise.

  24. Brian
    The Dark Knight Rises – $221 million
    1. Less
    2. More

    Nick
    The Dark Knight Rises – 213 million
    1. More
    2. More

    Jeanine
    TDKR – 210 Million
    1. More
    2. Less

    Joe Webb
    TDKR – 200m
    1. More
    2. Less

    Jackrabbit Slim
    DKR: 198 million
    1. More
    2. Less

    filmman
    TDKR – 195 million
    1. Less (No 3D screenings)
    2. Man, I don’t understand math. Less? More?

    Rob
    DARK KNIGHT RISES $190.1 million
    1) Less
    2) Less

    James
    TDKR – 187M
    1. Less
    2. Less

    Juan
    The Dark Knight Rises – $186.9 million
    1. Less
    2. Less

  25. 12 people killed, more than 50 injured at a midnight screening in Aurora, Colorado. This puts a major damper on the Dark Knight opening weekend.

  26. A former co-worker of mine moved to Colorado a few years ago and worked at that theater for a while. He still knows and is friends with some of the managers and posted this morning that many of them are traumatized.

  27. It’s hard to comprehend, but I don’t think it will have that big of an effect. If anything people who weren’t going to go should now go to a movie this weekend.

  28. What…..a let-down.
    One sentence review? “Powerful and exciting. Full of sound and fury. Signifying nothing.”
    There were so many groan-inducing moments in this movie, I can’t believe Nolan made it.

  29. One of my Facebook acquaintances wrote: “I’d planned to hit the multiplex to see “Batman” this weekend. But it’s hard to get excited when the film’s debut has seen such a horrific tragedy. The day seems masked in gloom.”

    I think the box office will take a small hit. For a while this will be the movie that the murders took place at. It won’t last long, given the 24-hour news cycle, but that feeling exists.

  30. It’s hard to know what to do when tragedy strikes. It’s tempting to shut ourselves in and follow the news/social media until we realize that that the whole day has gone by and the media’s only “breaking news” has been interviewing someone who knew a guy that knew a guy that used to go to kindergarten with the suspect.

    It’s tempting to shut ourselves in and be afraid of the world; the instability, the chaos and unpredictability of our fellow citizens. It’s tempting to want to place the blame on someone or something – the theater, violence in movies, violence in video games, the NRA, concealed weapon bans, and perhaps the parents or acquantainces that didn’t notice something “strange”.

    It’s in our nature to want to help, to see what we can do now, to see what we can do in the future to prevent this kind of thing from happening ever again.

    Hundreds of people and their families were impacted by this event, and it’s very tragic and it will take a long time for any of them to heal. I have every sympathy for those affected and hope that they receive every helping hand they need to get through this.

    Perhaps today is too soon. But maybe tomorrow, maybe next week we’ll remember that going to the movies is the way we choose to get away from it all. When Heath Ledger died, it was hard not to think of his untimely death while watching the The Dark Knight, and while we watch The Dark Knight Rises, we’ll be thinking of the Aurora victims. But it would be a shame to become a recluse and further detach ourselves from the world because we’re afraid.

  31. I’m not afraid, but I know that after hearing the news I jettisoned any plans on seeing it today. It just seemed in bad taste. I will see it eventually, though.

  32. We’re going to see it tomorrow morning. I don’t think it’s in any more bad taste to go see it than it is to drive somewhere after hearing about a terrible car accident.

  33. I actually don’t think that’s a good comparison either. But I don’t think it’s in bad taste. It was an isolated incident and could have happened at a mall or a school or just about anywhere. It’s unfortunate that it had to happen at all, and I’m still really sad about it. But I’m not going to let that guy take away the experience of going to a movie, to escape for just a few hours.

  34. Well, that’s a flimsy comparison. But to each his own.

    Maybe so, but I can’t see how it’s in any way bad taste to go and see a movie. Was it in bad taste to go into a tall building after 9/11? To go back to school the day after Columbine?

    Life goes on. If I got killed at a movie, and someone I didn’t know halfway across the county skipped the show on my account, my ghost would be rolling its eyes. If anything, it’s in bad taste to let this fucking psycho dictate our actions on his account.

  35. wait, say what?!
    Deadline is reporting a 161 million dollar weekend gross?
    Wow, that is shocking. Sunday dropped off like a brick.
    I’m shocked.

  36. It’s not surprising. They were estimating 180-200 Thursday before the shooting and I was surprised that anyone was estimating that high after. The memorial was today, and I can imagine a lot of people stayed home to watch instead of go to the movie. I think next week the film won’t drop the usual 50-60% and might be closer to 30-40% drop.

  37. Yeah, I agree. There’s no way it won’t hold. But Ice Age had half as much as Batman on Sunday. I find that quite shocking.

  38. A 30-40M drop in gross seems crazy high regardless of what happened in Aurora. There are almost certainly other factors (franchise fatigue? lack of family friendliness in the wake of The Avengers?) at play.

    The next Batman movie is going to be so upbeat that it’s going to make Iron Man look like Breaking the Waves.

  39. 160.9
    1. More ($30 million)
    2. Less ($36,532)

    The last HP film in comparison dropped 72% the 2nd weekend. The Avengers dropped 50%. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next weekend.

  40. I think best cast is 60-65%. The majority of folks who avoided it last week (at least due to the shootings) aren’t going to be that much more likely to head out after another week of non-stop news coverage. Particularly with the media focusing on the Batman-related materials found in the suspect’s apartment.

    I know it’s weird to call a movie opening to 160M a “disappointment”, but the final gross, at best, is going to be at least a hundred million less than the previous installment. It’s going to be an uphill battle to outgross The Hunger Games for the year.

    Could be good news for Neighborhood Watch. Comedy might be just what the market wants right now.

  41. A 30-40M drop in gross seems crazy high regardless of what happened in Aurora. There are almost certainly other factors (franchise fatigue? lack of family friendliness in the wake of The Avengers?) at play.

    Hard to say though, because the film is pretty dark, but that didn’t stop The Dark Knight. That movie was such a runaway success that it’s hard to believe people just said, “Eh, not family friendly enough” for this one.

    It does feel like the movie is tainted, for lack of a better word. I don’t feel that way myself – it’s like holding Jodie Foster accountable for John Hinkley Jr – but it’s the general impression that I get. Just a feeling in the air.

    On the other hand, my mom said that she’s going to make sure to see it just because she wants to support it after the tragedy. Well, that, and to spite Rush Limbaugh. I think she probably would have seen it anyway, but she was pretty galvanized about it when I talked to her the other day.

  42. Batman-related materials? Can’t all just blame Nolan for making him so dark and ‘real’?
    Goddamn Batman…

  43. Doesn’t tanking on a Sunday like that usually mean ‘bad word of mouth’?

  44. “Could be good news for Neighborhood Watch. Comedy might be just what the market wants right now.”

    It’s just THE WATCH now. Because people are reactionary tools.

    GANGSTER SQUAD will soon be cut and retitled THE SQUAD for the same reason…

  45. The Dark Knight Rises – $160,887,295
    Midnight – $30.64
    Per screen average – $36,532

    Brian
    The Dark Knight Rises – $221 million
    1. Less
    2. More

    Nick
    The Dark Knight Rises – 213 million
    1. More +0.5
    2. More

    Jeanine
    TDKR – 210 Million
    1. More +0.5
    2. Less +0.5

    Joe Webb
    TDKR – 200m
    1. More +0.5
    2. Less +0.5

    Jackrabbit Slim
    DKR: 198 million
    1. More +0.5
    2. Less +0.5

    filmman
    TDKR – 195 million
    1. Less (No 3D screenings)
    2. Man, I don’t understand math. Less? More?

    Rob
    DARK KNIGHT RISES $190.1 million
    1) Less
    2) Less +0.5

    James +2
    TDKR – 187M
    1. Less
    2. Less +0.5

    Juan +4
    The Dark Knight Rises – $186.9 million
    1. Less
    2. Less +0.5

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