AGEBOC ’13 – July 5 – July 7

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AGEBOC 2013

Predict the #1 film of the weekend.

The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points.

Bonus questions:

1. Which movie will have a higher per-theater average: The Lone Ranger or Despicable Me 2?

2. Will Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain finish in the Top 8 this weekend?

Deadline is Wednesday, July 3 07:59 am (blog time)
To find out the rules of the game, go to the main thread for AGEBOC 09.

Current rankings

AGEBOCSuperman_zps98d78221Jackrabbit Slim – 23

Rob – 16
James – 13
Juan – 11
Brian – 9.5
Joe Webb – 7
Nick – 3.5
Filmman – 2
Jeanine – 1

18 responses »

  1. DM2 only cost 76M. For comparison: Brave cost 185M.

    Regardless of the Pixar prestige – that points to a pretty wasteful process. It’s kind of absurd that they’re spending that much on animated features.

  2. Animation is really, really interesting. I caught Trudie Styler’s excellent doc The Sweatbox, which covered the making of the film The Emperor’s New Groove – going from the epic-aiming Empire of the Sun, a follow up for one of The Lion King’s directors, to a lower-aiming buddy comedy. Basically Sting agreed to do the score, aping the Elton John thing, if his wife got to do a doc on the making of the film. She got amazing access and caught this crazy development process in action, and was then banned from ever releasing it as it made Disney look so bad. They started by spending all kinds of money on character and set designs and concept art and even recording music before having a script of any sort. I’ve hear Pixar has a similar process, really changing things over a long period of time. My guess is Illumination starts with a script and gets things sorted out before spending money on stuff that will never get used.

  3. I should say I believe The Emperor’s New Groove turned out pretty well, though it’s been years since I’ve seen it, it just ended up one of those smaller Disney comedies that they once made a lot of rather than one of their big epics. And it barely resembled the original concept – new plot, a second director brought in to help with the comedy stuff who ended up taking over etc.

  4. Estimates are DM2 at 82.5, which would get Joe a bonus (but I would finish in second). Bonus 1 is DM2 easily (almost three times the Lone Ranger’s) and 2 is yes, barely.

  5. Bonus 1 is DM2 easily (almost three times the Lone Ranger’s) and 2 is yes, barely.

    Not really “barely”, since it made way more than the #9 movie. It was closer to finishing sixth than it was ninth.

    The Lone Ranger is pretty much DOA. $48 million in five days is about as low as it could have possibly gotten for a big-budget action movie over what was an extended 4th weekend for a lot of people. I should head over to Dave Poland’s site for what I’m assuming is a contrarian and overly condescending take on why this is actually good news for Disney.

    EDIT: Wow, I seriously wasn’t that far off:

    Here’s my thing about 5-days… comparisons and stuff needs mathematical accuracy… but the basic reality for me is that the end of the first weekend (which sometimes includes a Monday) is really what the issue at hand is. That’s what the big marketing spend controls. That’s when you get audiences drawn almost exclusively by what they think the movie is and not by personal word of mouth.

    All kinds of little details have an effect on how those 5 days flow, in terms of ticket sales. This year, it was 4th of July on a Thursday. Sometimes, it may be on a Saturday. Some movies numbers are really affected by what families do together, some are just one part of the family that can escape for opening day viewing. And of course, when a movie like Despicable Me 2 opens, the huge rush to the theaters on the weekdays end up skewing expectations of the weekend (which is why DM2 is a little short of Spider-Man 2 for #2 all-time best July 4 opening 3-day).

    Also, people still talk about July 4 weekend as some great launching pad… but again, the stats say otherwise. There has never been a $100m 3-day over this holiday weekend, but there have been two just this summer on non-holiday weekends and a third just behind the record-holding Transformers 3.

    In other words, it is a long way from being an exact measure. Except… you do get a real feel for “opening.”

    The question of how The Lone Ranger will hold domestically and then, how it will do, led by Depp internationally is not answered and should should not be forgotten in the weeks to come. Remember, Depp’s The Tourist TRIPLED it’s domestic, turning it from a miss to a hit.

    Yes, it’s just a matter of “little details”!

    Also, no doubt a sequel for The Tourist will be greenlit any day now.

  6. Not quite the 7-pointer I was hoping for, but I’ll take the win! Can no one stop the Summer of Slim?

    1. Despicable Me 2 $83,517,315 ($20,895avg)
    2. The Lone Ranger $29,210,849 ($7,482avg)

    8. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain $10,030,463

    Brian
    Despicable Me 2: $87 million
    1. Despicable Me 2 +0.5
    2. Yes +0.5

    James
    DM2 – 80m
    1. DM2 +0.5
    2. No

    Juan
    Despicable Me 2 – $79 million
    1. Despicable Me 2 +0.5
    2. Yes +0.5

    Jackrabbit Slim
    DM2 81 million (sorry James) +2
    1. DM2 +0.5
    2. Yes +0.5

    Joe Webb
    Despicable Me 2 – $82m +4
    1. Despicable Me 2 +0.5
    2. Yes +0.5

    Rob
    Despicable Me 2 – $76.8 million
    1) Lone Ranger
    2) No?

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