Oscar 2013 Predictions, Round 1

“Will I get an Oscar nomination?”

Tomorrow the Screen Actors Guild will announce their nominations; the Golden Globes will announce the following day. The Oscar race will come into sharper focus then. Before that happens, here is where the race is after many critics’ organizations have given their awards.

It is important to remember that their are no critics in the Academy, so critics’ awards don’t match up often with Oscar. However, they can bring attention to films and performers. For example, after the National Board of Review and the L.A. Film Critics both named Her as Best Picture, that film certainly has much more visibility. The same for Bruce Dern in Nebraska (he has also been out on the hustings campaigning). On the other hand, Captain Phillips, which I thought might be a dark horse contender for a Best Picture Oscar, has been blanked so far. But, of course, so was Argo.

The Best Picture race is wide open right now. I suppose 12 Years a Slave might still be considered a front-runner, but it’s a tough sit. Something more conventionally entertaining may jump to the fore, such as Gravity or Captain Phillips, or maybe even American Hustle or The Wolf of Wall Street.

The acting categories are also wide open. I would venture to say that though there may be front-runners, such as Cate Blanchett for Best Actress or Robert Redford for Best Actor, the races are all very fluid.

Best Picture

Locks: 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle

Safe Bets: Captain Phillips, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Wolf of Wall Street

In the Mix: The Butler, Saving Mr. Banks, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, All Is Lost, Her

Best Director

Locks: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Safe Bets: Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips; Ethan and Joel Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

In the Mix: David O. Russell, American Hustle; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street, Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine, Spike Jonze, Her

Best Actor

Locks: Robert Redford, All Is Lost; Chiwitel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Safe Bet: Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

In the Mix: Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Forest Whitaker, The Butler; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Best Actress

Locks: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Safe Bets: Judi Dench, Philomena; Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

In the Mix: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County; Amy Adams, American Hustle; Adele Exarchopoulo, Blue Is the Warmest Color

Best Supporting Actor

Locks: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club, Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Safe Bets: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

In the Mix: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips; George Clooney, Gravity, James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks

Best Supporting Actress

Locks: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave; Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Safe Bets: Oprah Winfrey, The Butler; Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

In the Mix: Julia Roberts, August: Osage County, June Squibb, Nebraska; Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine


About Jackrabbit Slim

Location: Vegas, Baby! I’m much older than the other whippersnappers here, a baby boomer. I tend to be more snobbish about film, disdaining a lot of the multiplex fare for “cinema.” My favorite films: Woody Allen’s oeuvre (up until about 1990), The Godfather, The Graduate, A Hard Day’s Night, Pulp Fiction. Politics: Well, George McGovern was my political hero. I’m also a prickly atheist. Occupation: Poised to be an English teacher in Las Vegas. For many years I was an editor at Penthouse Magazine. My role on this blog seems to be writing lots of reviews and being the resident Oscar maven.

9 responses »

  1. SAG Award nominations:

    Ensemble Cast
    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    August: Osage County
    Dallas Buyers Club
    The Butler

    Lead Actor
    Bruce Dern, Nebraska
    Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
    Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
    Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
    Forest Whitaker, The Butler

    Lead Actress
    Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
    Sandra Bullock, Gravity
    Judi Dench, Philomena
    Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
    Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

    Supporting Actor
    Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
    Daniel Bruhl, Rush
    Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
    James Gandolfini, Enough Said
    Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

    Supporting Actress
    Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
    Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
    Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
    June Squibb, Nebraska
    Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

    The big surprise here is the snub of Robert Redford. So maybe he isn’t a front-runner for Oscar.

  2. There’s an admittedly slim chance that Brie Larson may slip in to the Best Actress category for SHORT TERM 12. She has a lot of support behind her, but the movie hasn’t gotten a big push yet. It would be well deserved though.

  3. I never thought Redford would get far in the race, nobody knows that movie exists.

    On another note – no nom for Paul Walker in Hours? What a bunch of heatless bastards.

  4. 71st Golden Globe Nominations

    Best Picture, Drama
    •12 Years a Slave
    •Captain Phillips

    Best Picture, Comedy
    •American Hustle
    •Inside Llewyn Davis
    •The Wolf of Wall Street

    Best Director
    •Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
    •Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
    •Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
    •Alexander Payne, Nebraska
    •David O. Russell, American Hustle

    Best Actress
    •Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
    •Sandra Bullock, Gravity
    •Judi Dench, Philomena
    •Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks
    •Kate Winslet, Labor Day

    Best Actor
    •Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
    •Idris Elba, Mandela
    •Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
    •Matthew McConaghey, Dallas Buyers Club
    •Robert Redford, All Is Lost

    Best Actor Comedy
    •Christian Bale, American Hustle
    •Bruce Dern, Nebraska
    •Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
    •Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
    •Joaquin Phoenix, Her

    Best Actress Comedy
    •Amy Adams, American Hustle
    •Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
    •Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
    •Julia Louis Dreyfuss, Enough Said
    •Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

    Best Supporting Actor
    •Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
    •Daniel Bruhl, Rush
    •Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
    •Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
    •Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

    Best Supporting Actress
    •Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
    •Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
    •Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
    •Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
    •June Squibb, Nebraska

    Best Screenplay
    •Her, Spike Jonze
    •Nebraska, Bob Nelson
    •Philomena, Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan
    •12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
    •American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell

    Best Foreign Language Film
    •Blue is the Warmest Color
    •The Great Beauty
    •The Hunt
    •The Past
    •The Wind Rises

    Best Original Song
    •Atlas (Hunger Games)
    •Let it Go (Frozen)
    •Ordinary Love (Mandela)
    •Please Mr. Kennedy (Inside Llewyn Davis)
    •Sweeter Fiction (One Chance)

    Best Score
    •All is Lost, Alex Ebert
    •Mandela, Alex Heffes
    •Gravity, Steven Price
    •Book Thief, John Williams
    •12 Years a Slave, Hans Zimmer

    Best Animated Feature
    •The Croods
    •Despicable Me 2

    They sure have a strange definition of “comedy.”

  5. I think Daniel Bruhl must now be considered to have a fairly good shot at Best Supporting Actor, ahead of George Clooney and maybe Jonah Hill (Wolf of Wall Street may suffer for getting screeners out too late).

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