Taking a look at the movie calendar for the rest of the year, the Best Actor Oscar race looks unusually skimpy. Sure, there’s Tom Hanks in a Steven Spielberg movie, but other than that the biggest stars didn’t make movies this year of had flops. This has set up what is perhaps the easiest forecast of the upcoming Oscar campaign.
Because there’s only one obvious nominee, I’m going take some very wild-ass guesses. In alphabetical order:
Chadwick Boseman, Marshall. Boseman, who has specialized in playing the great black men of the century (Jackie Robinson, James Brown, and now Thurgood Marshall) stars in a legal drama when the hallowed Supreme Court justice was a lawyer. Interestingly, it is not based on Devil in a Lemon Grove, a popular book about Marshall defending black boys for murder in Florida. This all depends on the impact of the film. If it doesn’t open with a splash, Boseman will be forgotten, no matter how good he is.
Daniel Day-Lewis, The Phantom Thread. No one knows much about this movie, but we do know that Day-Lewis and director P.T. Anderson teamed for one of Day-Lewis’s three Oscar wins (There Will Be Blood). Day-Lewis’s announcement that this is his last film may help him get a nod, but he’s said that before.
Domnhall Gleeson, Goodbye, Christopher Robin. Another actor playing a real person (author A. A. Milne), which the Academy loves. Gleeson, the son of Brendan Gleeson, has been in many good movies over the last few years, and again, it all depends on how the film is received. Looks like a weepie.
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman. What’s that, another real person? Yes, Jackman plays P.T. Barnum in a musical. Couple with Jackman’s gritty finale as Logan earlier in the year, he really displays his range. He got a nod for Les Miserables, and if this film is a hit I think he’s a safe bet.
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour. It seems folly to announce a winner in October, but Oldman may have this sewn up now, playing Winston Churchill (yet another real person) in tons of makeup. Oldman was only been nominated once before, but has the kind of respect (imagine a man playing Sid Vicious and Churchill). The film has been by critics and Oldman has been anointed.
Other possibilities: Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger; Michael Fassbender; The Snowman; Tom Hanks; The Post; Bryan Cranston; Last Flag Flying; Sam Elliott; The Hero.