Predict the #1 film for the weekend of June 5 – 7, 2009.
The one who predicts closest to the total Friday to Sunday gross for the #1 film wins 4 points. Runner-up gains 2 points. Predicting within half a million earns 2 extra points.
Bonus questions:
1) The Hangover: Will it make over or under 22 million? (Knocked Up made 30 million in its opening weekend)
2) My Life in Ruins: Will it make over or under 3 million? (Compare:
My Big Fat Greek Wedding made 3 million on its first wide weekend, 241 million total domestic.
Connie & Carla made 3 million on its first wide weekend, 8 million total domestic.)
Deadline is Wednesday June 3 at 11:59 pm (blog time).
To find out the rules of the game, go to the main thread for AGEBOC 09.
AGEBOC 09 score
Joe Webb: 12
James: 11
Rob: 10.5
Brian: 5
filmman: 5
Nick: 4.5
Rhymerguy: 4
Jackrabbit Slim: 3.5
Juan: 3
Marco Trevisiol: 2.5
Jeanine: 2
Gone Elsewhere 
Tough week. Tempted to go with Up to win again, but I won’t:
Jackrabbit Slim: Land of the Lost, 40 million
1. Over
2. Over
Up – 45 million (after grossly underestimating it last weekend, might as well err on the side of overestimating it this weekend)
1. Under (probably wrong, but the trailer I saw for it was hideous)
2. Over
Nick: Up – 38 million
1. Under
2. Under
I’ve been laughing at the trailer for The Hangover these last few weeks and greatly look forward to seeing it, but considering that the most well-known face in the film is Mike Tyson in a cameo and that it looks geared more towards guys than gals, makes me doubt it will have the impact Knocked Up had.
Jeanine – Land O’ Lost – 45 Million
1. Under
2. Under
I think I’m better of randomly picking numbers than I am actually trying. :(
Rob: The Hangover – $43.78 million
1. Over
2. Under
I’m being bold here because I agree it’s a tough week but The Hangover looks to be the best bet… Will Farrell has been averaging openings in the mid thirties… Pixar films often drop by about half in the 2nd week… and Drag Me To Hell is currently the closest thing to a comedy playing right now.
The top spot will be mine again… oh yes… it will. I was a bit overzealous having rhymerguy killed, so I think I’ll just beat the rest of you with stunningly accurate predictions.
No clue at all. I’m completely guessing:
Up – 37M
1. Over
2. Under
Brian: Land of the Lost: $48 million
1. Under
2. Under
The Hangover was effing hilarious from beginning to end.
I now have to trust that the people will make the right choice this weekend and lead me to victory!
And now to repeat that sentiment under my own log in…
The Hangover was effing hilarious from beginning to end.
I now have to trust that the people will make the right choice this weekend and lead me to victory!
Land of the Lost:
42 million
1. Over
2. Under
Joe Webb – Land of the Lost $44.444mil
1. Over
2. Over
Gender confusion in the AGEBOC!
What happens in AGEBOC stays in AGEBOC… right? D’oh!
Can I change my prediction? I’m testing a theory…
UP – 34 Mil
Is it the George Costanza theory?
Land of the Lost – $35 million
1) Over
2) Under
Bells
Main Entry: Bell
Part of Speech: noun
Definition: signaling object or sound
Synonyms: alarm, buzz, buzzer, carillon, chime, clapper, curfew, ding-dong, dinger, gong, peal, ringer, siren, tintinnabulum, tocsin, toll, vesper
Two new films are set up to take down last week’s Up and there are guesses on all three. Land of the Lost is the favorite, with five guesses ranging from 48 million to 35 million. Four are betting that Up will stay up on top, with guesses ranging between 45 million and 34 million. The lone voice of dissent is Rob, who is doing a Las Vegas-style crazy bet that The Hangover will be a good one. 43.78 million? Really, Rob?
Meanwhile, a strange smell is emanating from my laptop. Could it be the corpse of Rhymerguy?
Brian: Land of the Lost – $48 million
1. Under
2. Under
Joe Webb: Land of the Lost – $44.444 million
1. Over
2. Over
filmman: Land of the Lost – $42 million
1. Over
2. Under
Jackrabbit Slim: Land of the Lost – $40 million
1. Over
2. Over
Juan: Land of the Lost – $35 million
1. Over
2. Under
Marco Trevisiol: Up – $45 million
1. Under
2. Over
Nick: Up – $38 million
1. Under
2. Under
James: Up – $37 million
1. Over
2. Under
Jeanine: Up – $34 million
1. Under
2. Under
Rob: The Hangover – $43.78 million
1. Over
2. Under
Worst hangover I ever had was after a Cinco de Mayo celebration. Lesson: never race a Mexican in a tequila race.
The fix is in! You left out my guess!
Whoops! Sorry. Fixed!
It’s because I have two lists, one online and one on my computer. This usually keeps away the mistakes, but sometimes I’m either updating the one on my computer too early (as when I missed Joe’s changed prediction) or try and organize the one online instead of having done so on the original document on my computer. Why would I otherwise have said “Land of the Lost is the favorite, with five guesses”? Eh? Eh? Think about that. Yeah.
Okay, I’ll buy your excuse (of course I’m joking–why would you target a guy who finishes third every week?)
Yes, people finishing second, I mean third! have no cause for alarm..
It’s good that you checked anyway, something everyone should do from time to time. It’s easy to lose track of half a point here and there.
Joe – pretty much.
Apparently tickets for The Hangover are starting to sell out like crazy. People are talking about a +35 opening. Goddam, Rob.
Land of the Lost, meanwhile, not so much. Studio has put opening at about 30 million.
Rise my minions, rise! The masturbating baby awaits you within The Hangover!
Land of the Lost is looking like the first flop of the summer season. 7 million Friday, 20-25 million weekend.
Now The Hangover is competing neck-and-neck with Up with a 15-17 million Friday opening. If word of mouth hasn’t kicked in already (it was screened over 300 times around the US) it might end up with a +40 million for the weekend. Which means… bonus question 1 is probably ‘over’.
My Life in Ruins looks like it might end up clearing in 4 million, so that’s a ‘over’ too. Damn, no luck with the bonus questions.
To the rescue comes Up, which made 13.5 million Friday, so +40 million is looking likely there as well. So let’s all pray that Hangover makes 35 million and Up makes 40 million (38 million, preferably). Pray, people, pray.
Ouch for Land of the Lost, although I wouldn’t exactly say it’s the first flop given Terminator Salvation’s performance (on a 200 million dollar budget).
I don’t see Terminator Salvation as a flop yet, since it looks like it will most likely take in over 250 million worldwide. It’s underperforming on that budget, but a film that takes in the equivalent of its budget back worldwide won’t lose them very much money in the long run. Aren’t theatre revenues only 20% of the overall? I suppose it’s a flop in the sense that it’s another nail in the coffin for the franchise. They’re unlikely to bankroll another sequel to this one.
Land of the Lost on the other hand will definitely not make back its +100 million budget in any manner.
Oddly, I think there’s a very good chance of seeing another Terminator sequel. MGM has right of first refusal to the next film and they’re just desperate enough to make it with a reduced budget.
Talk about major upsets and surprises. These are the estimates from Box Office Mojo.
1. Up $44,244,000
2. The Hangover $43,275,000
3. Land of the Lost $19,524,000
So both Rob and Marco have a shot at two extra points for predicting within half a million. By tomorrow, when the actuals come in, either of them could be looking at six points extra or more. Marco has two points minimum, since no one else guessed The Hangover, but Rob gains nothing but half an extra point if these numbers hold. A real nailbiter this one.
Just need Pixar’s numbers to be $1 million too high… it can happen people… if we all believe…
Box Office Mojo is acting mojo at the moment, plus the actuals aren’t out yet, so the next installment will be up later today. In the meantime you can all come up with good bonus questions.
Did you guys catch my typo? I was typing “UP” and somehow fatfingered it to read “Land of the Lost.”
Common mistake…you guys understand, right?
They’re calling it an Up’set. The Hangover won the weekend! And by proxy, so did Rob! Holy #¤?}! Major congratulations. Honestly, that’s legendary. 45 million. No one, not even the so called experts, had it that level. Except Rob. 4 points well earned. Rob now has the crown again, snatching it from Joe.
Runner up is Marco, who wins his first two points by going all out against his former instincts. But then again, he is from Australia, where the swirls swirl differently, and Up is down with 44.3 million. Almost enough for him to make 2 extra points, but not enough for the crown, alas. Congrats anyhow, Marco! I was cheering for you (mostly because that would have meant I would have got runner-up status but now I am left with nothing! *cries*).
Final tally: The Hangover – $45 million
Correct bonus answers
1. Over
2. Over
Brian: Land of the Lost – $48 million
1. Under
2. Under
Joe Webb: Land of the Lost – $44.444 million
1. Over +0.5
2. Over +0.5
filmman: Land of the Lost – $42 million
1. Over +0.5
2. Under
Jackrabbit Slim: Land of the Lost – $40 million
1. Over +0.5
2. Over +0.5
Juan: Land of the Lost – $35 million
1. Over +0.5
2. Under
Marco Trevisiol: Up – $45 million +2
1. Under
2. Over +0.5
Nick: Up – $38 million
1. Under
2. Under
James: Up – $37 million
1. Over +0.5
2. Under
Jeanine: Up – $34 million
1. Under
2. Under
Rob: The Hangover – $43.78 million +4
1. Over +0.5
2. Under
Poor Joe. He thought he was Up but is really suffering from The Hangover, wondering how he landed in Land of the Lost.
More than one source is saying this, but I’m highly doubtful. I don’t doubt it will happen eventually (it’s a widely recognized franchise and even Alien is getting a prequel) but not soon and not with this crew, except for those producers who hold the rights.
It would be cool if they made a much lower budgeted sequel (because what’s a “reduced budget”? 150 million?). Like going from Chronicles of Riddick to Pitch Black.
That’s what they’re trying to do with the next Pitch Black movie. 35M or less.
What a strange journey that trilogy will have taken then. Bet it’s a huge hit too, leaving them scratching their heads all over again. “Uh, so do we give this one a higher budget?”
Vin Diesel is looking more and more like this generation’s Burt Reynolds.
Sweet sweet vindication.
Thank God for bonus questions or I’d have a big fat goose egg.
Actually got the script for the third Riddick film last week. It reads like it was written in stream of conscious mode over a long weekend. I can’t imagine it’s going to earn more than 15-20 million unless Twohy directs the hell out of it, it’s just really, really bad.
Send it to me!