I just got my issue of Twilight Entertainment Weekly, and it’s their fall preview issue, so that can only mean one thing—it’s time to start thinking about what movies will be up for the Oscar. This year there is a new wrinkle that will change the landscape of prognostication: there will be ten Best Picture nominations, doubling the field. Oscar hasn’t done this since 1943, too long ago to be relevant to how it will affect this year’s nominations. As Grace Slick said forty years ago this weekend at Woodstock, “It’s a new dawn, people.”
There is two ways this could go. Sid Ganis, president of the Academy, opined that it might mean that more different kinds of pictures would be nominated: comedies, foreign films, documentaries. Fat chance. I think it may allow more boffo box office adventure films in (surely a ten-picture field last year would have included The Dark Knight), but I don’t envision voters creating in their minds a comedy slot, a documentary slot, a foreign film slot. Instead, I’m guessing what we’ll get is more of the same—instead of five films of a certain prestige released late in the year, we’ll get ten.
So on to my annual wild-ass guesses. In past years I came up with ten possibilities for five nominations. I’m going to stick with ten guesses, but of course I’ll probably only hit about five on the head. If I do more than that I’ll be pleased with myself. In alphabetical order:
Avatar (Dec. 18, James Cameron) The Academy has given a cold-shoulder to sci-fi/fantasy, but opening it up to ten may help here. If this film is as visually dazzling as everyone thinks it is, that could be the ticket into the top category. It certainly should earn lots of tech nominations.
An Education (Oct. 9, Lone Scherfig) Lots of good buzz about this one, about a British teenager in the early 1960s who is courted by an older man. Certainly a lock for a Best Actress nomination for newcomer Carey Mulligan. Could be the critical sleeper of the year.
The Hurt Locker (July, Kathryn Bigelow) This may be wishful thinking on my part, since the film has been disappointing at the box office and will be hurt by a summer release. But damn it’s a good movie.
Invictus (Dec. 11, Clint Eastwood) A no-brainer: Clint Eastwood directs Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela. Don’t know if it’s any good, but it certainly will give the Academy a huge boner. The only downfall will be that it’s too earnest (see Cry Freedom).
The Lovely Bones (Dec. 11, Peter Jackson) Got pushed back specifically to be awards bait, this could be dreadful but Jackson is certainly an Academy favorite. Adapted from a novel by Alice Sebold, it’s about a girl who is murdered and then watches over her family from a heaven-like place. If the movie takes the weird sexual turn the novel does, it could be too disquieting for Oscar.
Nine (Nov. 25, Rob Marshall) Ever since Chicago won Best Picture every year another musical comes along and it’s touted as the presumptive Oscar favorite. But more and more it’s looking as if Chicago was an aberration, not the start of a trend. Phantom of the Opera, The Producers, Rent, Dreamgirls, Sweeney Todd—zero Best Picture nominations among them. Nine, based on a Broadway musical that was in turn based on Fellini’s 8 ½, certainly has a good pedigree—there are six Oscar-winners in the cast. I’m putting it on the list, but wouldn’t be shocked if it underwhelms. And what’s with all the movies with that particular numeral in the title? We’ve got Nine, 9, and District 9.
Shutter Island (Oct. 2, Martin Scorsese) Scorsese’s been on an Oscar roll—he’s had three Best Picture nominations in the seven years. This one is a genre picture, reminiscent of Cape Fear, but you can’t count Marty out.
The Tree of Life (Dec. 25, Terrence Malick) Sean Penn and Brad Pitt bring the star power, and the mystical Malick directs. Don’t know much about it, but it must be remembered that the difficult Thin Red Line got a Best Pic nod (of course The New World was ignored).
Up (May 28, Pete Docter) This is problematic. No way Up is nominated if there are only five nominees, and it may still get overlooked because animated films are ghettoized in their own category. What could happen is that if it does get nominated, and the Academy sticks with ten nominees, it may be the end of the Best Animated Film category, as it may be deemed unnecessary.
Up in the Air (Dec., Jason Reitman) George Clooney as a businessman who practically lives in the air. Clooney has a knack for picking good projects, and Reitman comes off the big success of Juno. Smells like a hit and Oscar-friendly to me.
There are a lot of films that I’ve left off that are ripe for nomination, including films by Steven Soderbergh, the Coen Brothers, Jane Campion, Pedro Almodovar, and Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu. There’s even one, The Road, which I had on my list last year that got bumped to this year. I guess the thing I’m most hoping for is that many of these films are good.
Gone Elsewhere 
But wasn’t the main issue with all these films – with the possible exception of Sweeney Todd – was iirc they weren’t exactly lavished with mass critical praise necessary to get at least a Best Picture Nominaton?
Hard to believe that ‘The Producers’ was being touted as a Best Picture nominee before release; you’d do well to find a more clunky musical of recent years. They would’ve done as well just doing a filmed version of the stage production.
Marco, what I’m trying to say is that before Chicago a musical hadn’t been nominated for best picture in several years (I think it was Oliver and Hello Dolly in ’68, though I may be forgetting something in between). After Chicago won, all of a sudden any film based on a Broadway musical was seen as an automatic front-runner for Oscar. Part of this was perpetuated by people like David Poland (who touted Phantom of the Opera and The Producers, before he had seen them) and Tom O’Neill (who declared Sweeney Todd would sweep the Oscars after he saw it). I realize I’m playing into that by putting Nine on my list, and I kind of hate myself for it.
But in essence you’re right, though Dreamgirls, right up to the day the nominations were announced, was the presumptive Best Picture Oscar winner. That went up in smoke when it didn’t even get nominated.
Woodstock was a new dawn for nothing but a generation who talked a lot but then destroyed their world with greed and laziness.
“We’ll change the world…” they said.
Thanks for all you left us, guys…
Up In The Air is supposed to be REAL good.
Filmman, you’re harshing my mellow.
Fiddler on the Roof in 1971, Cabaret in 1972 and All that Jazz in 1979 were all nominated; and didn’t Beauty and the Beast have several musical numbers in it (I’ve never seen it)?
It’s interesting to think that musicals seem to be much more in style in the last 5 or so years as opposed to the 1980s/1990, where they almost disappeared from sight.
Are there any musicals from those two decades that could be considered unlucky not to get a Best Pic Nom? iirc there was a push for Evita to get a nomination but I haven’t seen that so can’t judge whether it deserved one.
I can scratch Shutter Island from the list, it’s been postponed until February.
Wells is raving about Up in the Air, for what it’s worth.
Wells is arguing that ‘Avatar’ is the clear front-runner for the Best Picture Oscar at this stage.
While I’ve been belitting some of his comments/predictions recently, I think he’s on the money here. In fact, ‘Avatar’ is feeling a lot like Cameron’s previous film ‘Titanic’. Despite issues with the narrative/characters, critics are generally highly positive about the film (83% on RT) and it’s clearly struck a chord with the public that few other films have this past 12 months.
It will be the most popular film in America released this year and potentially might not be that far away from ‘Titanic’ in terms of box office. Those things shouldn’t count in terms of the Best Picture winner but in reality they do.
I’d be very surprised if ‘Avatar’ didn’t win the Oscar from here.
I think Avatar is one of the favorites, but I wouldn’t call it the frontrunner yet, mainly because it’s sci-fi and that would be the first in that category (LOTR:ROTK softens things up a bit). Also, I don’t imagine Cameron is a beloved figure in Hollywood, except to accountants, and they remember his “King of the world” speech.
Actually, the track record indicates that it’s a disadvantage to be the highest box-office grosser among the nominees. Up in the Air is much more the type of movie the Academy goes for. Remember, their average age is pretty high. Avatar certainly has a chance, though. If Cameron wins DGA it’s a done deal.
So I ended up getting five out of ten, nothing special. Two of my choices got pushed to the next year, a couple were bombs, and Invictus probably just missed. What is interesting to me is that I was worried The Hurt Locker wasn’t going to get nominated, and I think it’s now the front-runner to win.